I still think we have a bit further to go but positive signals 1) People have cashed out big time 2) SP500 down 38% over the last 12 Months 3) Roughly 13% of companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) have shares with dividend yields that are higher than Treasury bonds. That's the highest level since at least 1994, he said. http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=81200599 4) Cramer has never sounded more panic. The cash out call yesterday was priceless 5) Mainstream media is no longer talking recession or buy the dip. We are talking depression 6) People are giving up on the stock Market Charles Smith, a retired former International Business Machines Corp. marketing manager, hasn't dumped stocks since the 1987 stock-market crash. But, angry about the state of corporate America and worried about the economy, he is selling stocks, getting out of his index funds and going entirely into cash. "This isn't my normal strategy, but these aren't normal times," said Mr. Smith, 71 years old, who lives in Dallas. "The fact that banks have just ruined their balance sheets and wiped out their ability to function realistically worries me," he said. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122333567578609541.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
I'm waiting for the apathy stage. I thought we might have been there, but people keep trying to call bottoms, or at least look for one. But we had a 500 down day today, and it really didn't get as much press as it would have last week (prior to the 777 day). A 500 down day would have been a "crash" 1 month ago, and it barely gets ink on Drudgereport? Who knows.
Think about all the securities that are restricted you can't short right now. Wait until that ban is lifted....8,800 DOW by months end!
Got a phone call from my friend today. He said "My daughter's college fund is down over $4000 in the last week. I'm thinking about DUMPING EVERYTHING before it loses any more." His daughter is only 3 years old. Capitulation is very close.
When they lift the ban, that will help the market. All the late commers come in and short right at the market bottom.
Ultimate capitulation? 6 die in family murder-suicide in Los Angeles "But he had been unemployed for several months and his finances had reached a crisis point in recent weeks, Moore said. "This is a perfect American family behind me that has absolutely been destroyed, apparently because of a man who just got stuck in a rabbit hole, if you will, of absolute despair," Moore said. "It is critical to step up and recognize we are in some pretty troubled times."" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_re_us/bodies_found
yes, there are positive signals out there...but too many traders are aware of them...I thought today we will get a nice short squeeze...and I was wrong, had to short again to make some profit. I'm all cash now, and have no idea what's coming next....
so many times i have sold out for mny mangement reasons, only to see the market go in my direction and my position turn profitable.....just took a month or more longer.....