this constitutes the majority of traders. if not all because getting fundamentals is an expensive activity and if, a trader could spend that much money on it, why, on earth, will he be a trader.
Good luck to you, just remember 3285 is the 50% retracement of the entire move. the last 10 days, the 50% has been holding on the hourlies pretty good. That stop might be too tight If you are trying to capture a big move. I would let 3300 get penetrated, wait for liquidation orders to send it lower, and buy then. But multiple ways to make money in this market. Cheers
technical analaysis is analyzing price action. is the price going down or price going up? right now this is the black swan pattern with the PEEK forming. What is the peek, it's doji...buyers and sellers refusing to sell lower and buyer refusing to bid higher. so price STALLS. or flat lines. for days. this is classic black swan pattern and classic chart pattern that is studied and very rare to see it in the macro level charts. a black swan is rare event but is not totally unpreditable like earthquake or ice storm that destroys orange crops that send orange prices higher. and for oil investors it's oil sands and for coal it's a ban on coal by gov't. from climate change it's regulatory event so it's 'rarely' happens and usually precedes a crash or bad for long position.
We might be heading towards 3280. Gotta be cautious indeed. True, I we breach 3300 there is going to be some stop runs. Ideally you want to buy these. Thx.
TA is waste of time in manipulated stocks or illiquid contracts and illiquid stocks. as the volume and trades are fake. and it's a con game.the rise in price is a ponzi scheme and being long is like putting money in ponzi scheme. and we all know how that usually ends. most people who participate in ponzi schemes lose money like madoff investors...you need new investors keep puttting new money to sustain the uptrend. and when no new money comes and the longs want to exit you get a crash or they lose half of the money as the guys who sold it buys it back for half of the price and still made money from the ponzi scheme.
It’s a black swan for the turkey but not for the butcher. A black swan is a tail event. Low probability, high impact.
some patterns can have 100% probability but it has to do with scale or size of the trade. it only works for small traders. institutional investors cannot profit from TA of individual small stocks trading .the size or volume is too small or thin for them. the more money you have the less feasible daytrading becomes or trading becomes. too much work for too little return. you might as well buy bonds if you want 10% ROC other trades..frequent trading doesn't make sense or feasible. only forex or commodities like gold .individual stocks are a waste of time for large institutional portfolios. where can you get 50% chance of winning? Does las vegas doesn't have 50% chance of winning in sport bettig,, i think they do. too
we are discussing TA broadly. there is no point in posting specific cases ……..and to post trading calls here is a not necessary we know how smart traders are