Can you hedge real estate?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by long, Dec 28, 2023.

  1. %%
    Some of those pay good dividends, but seldom beat SPY or qqq;
    even though today......... they may beat on downside LOL{more downside}
    Cheaper than a REMax RE franchise, original cost+ monthly fee, + $100+2.5% + monthly ad fees.....
    Dave Ramsey NOTED THE REIT fees tend to be TO HI.
    Even a low fee like Vanguard VNQ has 3 managers + not too good on 3 years, or 10 years ;
    + maybe about right on their less than 0.5% RE development.
    But an owner occupied + even little land could most likely do much better;
    ReMax never passes those fees on to buyer;
    95% of the properties i bought + sold for 20+ years were thru REALTORS. But based on properties, RE agents, ads, not because its a franchise.:D:D
     
    #61     Dec 29, 2023
  2. schizo

    schizo

    Yeah, I've never had much luck with REITs myseslf. The best bang for the buck for me was to just hire a few handymen and do a fixer-upper.
     
    #62     Dec 29, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. long

    long

    The property I’m looking at wouldn’t be a true investment. I just want it. That’s not to say that I’d never sell it if the price was right.
     
    #63     Dec 29, 2023
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    It depends where it is, but I doubt raw land can get hit that much. Unless the market has just gone nuts and it's way overpriced to start. If it's on the outskirts of a thriving metro, it may drop a little, but in time it'll bounce back. It's hard to say without knowing more about the property though.

    Either way, if he buys it and keeps it, his grandkids will be happy someday.
     
    #64     Dec 29, 2023
  5. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    i thought the same thing, but didn't work for me.

    i own less of everything now than ever. i get a kick knowing i could buy anything i want at asking price and make the paper "someone else opposite my trades" pay for it. that is a feeling like no other.

    making due and conserving what i have would be like conceding that you can't produce more than you have.
     
    #65     Dec 29, 2023
  6. destriero

    destriero

    Bently.
     
    #66     Dec 29, 2023
  7. Wouldn't the best hedge, still be to just buy Blackstone? The only problem is at the CEO's age, you risk Schwarzman being replaced by some diversity hire who then leads the company to woke-broke.

    I think one of their best hedges was during the height of TGFC housing disaster. He bought IIRC Vornado? REIT at much higher evaluations than he believed it should be (had to in order to win)... and in a very unorthodox move, sold half of it THE VERY SAME DAY.

    People thought divesting/hedging it was totally nuts (housing boom would go on forever, well didn't you know?). Yet, it turned out very well for Stephen!
     
    #67     Jan 1, 2024
  8. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    Former farmer/Realtor here. My family had different farms over the years. We owned 40 acres in California...Near a small town. My grandfather bought it back in 1932 for $129. in back taxes. They grew grapes on it.

    It was sold to my brother and I in the 1970's. The town was growing...We sold 18 acres for subdivision and I bought out my brother's half. I farmed almonds on it while I waited for the city to grow.

    Over the years, I paid to have the land brought into the city limits. Through a recession, I was still gaining income from the old rental on the farm and the almonds.

    I sold it in 2003...Bought a rental then never looked back.

    If I was a young investor this is what I would do (solo, not a large partnership/LLC). I would buy 5-20 acres in Ohio...Close to a small town that is growing. Maybe a town 20 minutes from where Intel will be building their new plant. Rent it out cheaply to a local good farmer...Hold it though recessions.

    When the time is right and housing demand is great, sell to a developer. You could even allow for payments to be made for a couple of years (carry a note, to reduce taxes all in one year).

    Just my thoughts.
     
    #68     Jan 1, 2024
    Sprout and long like this.
  9. long

    long

    This sounds great if you’re paying cash upfront. The scenario I linked to was financing the land and he is looking for a way to hedge a catastrophic black swan event that could drop the appraisal value by more than half in the short term. Something like the housing crisis did.
     
    #69     Jan 1, 2024
  10. %%
    THAT could still work well, +also with cash land or low debt land also;
    unless someone's name was Harvey Weinstein or Jeffry Epstein .
    Or unless its a HI crime area/Hi tax area:caution::caution:
     
    #70     Jan 2, 2024