Can you hedge real estate?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by long, Dec 28, 2023.

  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    offices are toast.

    industrial is going strong.
     
    #41     Dec 28, 2023
    nbbo, beginner66 and murray t turtle like this.
  2. zdreg

    zdreg

    Here is another winner newwurldmn. Did Santa deliver you a bag of coal?
     
    #42     Dec 28, 2023
  3. %%
    Good rebuke; RE is so local based .
    Some commercial buyers use RE options, may make sense in some ways;
    but when i bought properties[commercial + residential+ land] i would rather risk- reward with cash or conservative bank loans. Plenty of ways to manage risk on RE.
    Local banks value RE several other different ways also , but its noted on appraisals.
    Amazing local lack of inventory on homes, my mid south county + surrounding counties.
    NOT really, even much commercial property for sale. Healthy economy here.
     
    #43     Dec 28, 2023
  4. schizo

    schizo

    https://www.parcl.co/

    upload_2023-12-28_13-17-5.png
     
    #44     Dec 28, 2023
  5. long

    long

    #45     Dec 28, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. schizo

    schizo

    Well, I don't see what the problem is. They're like an exchange providing a platform for you to trade with other speculators. How else could you trade? Unless you're able to find and work with underwriters who are willing to draft a short hedge for you, which is very unlikely, this is about the best deal.
     
    #46     Dec 28, 2023
    SunTrader likes this.
  7. %%
    SAME here.
    NOT sure , even in a good market like Dallas/ that I would want ''an average ''LOL:D:D
    I do like an average on 100or 500 stocks sometimes.
    I do like above average RE.........
     
    #47     Dec 28, 2023
    MarkBrown likes this.
  8. long

    long

    I’m leery of such a big operator in crypto. It’s so volatile that solvency problems are easy to imagine. I used them to buy my first BTC and the business comes across as a carnival. Lots of users accounts get locked for no reason. They have lottery giveaways (air drops) that encourage you to buy crypto. It’s the Wild West and I’m not interested in entering a long term deal associated with them even if it’s not crypto.

    Also the markets listed probably wouldn’t correlate with rural property values. The scenario that started this thread would be a helluva black swan event that would definitely drop the SPX anyway. The easiest thing to do would be to use options like portfolio insurance and use a low correlation. Do it monthly and you wouldn’t be locked into a multi year butt plug of a premium. If the environment changes and you gain confidence you can just drop the options and go naked.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2023
    #48     Dec 28, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. schizo

    schizo

    I wouldn't exactly count on SPX dropping in lockstep with your rural property. I see almost zero correlation between the two. Moreover, while portfolio insurance might work with a basket of equities and whatnot, it's hard for me to understand how it could work with your real estate. Anyway, that's about all from me. Good luck going forward.
     
    #49     Dec 28, 2023
  10. long

    long

    The black swan event the guy is trying to hedge against is the commercial credit squeeze that is supposed to start happening in force next year. Short term loans will be coming due and have to re-up at the new higher rates or sell out. That is an event that could definitely cause a drop in the market as it would hit banks pretty hard.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2023
    #50     Dec 28, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.