Dear Shareholders- I would like to fill you in on the scheduling of your financial advisors this summer. This is the time of year we pack up our belongings and head to the great state of Ct. At the end of the month we will be swimming regularly in a beautiful pool. The months of July and August will be spent planting and tending to the fields. Towards the end of August we will be in Fire Island NY for two weeks and then our working summer comes to an end. It is at that point I have agreed to get a colonoscopy. I have spent the past days frantically placing stocks into my portfolios, the stocks are like the very seeds I plant and raise. The Males-- we throw them out! And in the end we hope to have a small cluster of natural goodness. I will take the next week to update our portfolio, explain some rationals and offer some thoughts on the general market and it's future. We have a last remaining headache-- This Churchill Downs Got Away Yesterday... It was a fabulous day trade but that's not what this thread is about... You don't care about that besides I spent that money already last night on clothes. This is about 1 Year Holds! With that in mind lets Follow: (A) CHDN (B) CONE Lets determine if we need any high yield/Total Return plays & Lets keep our eyes out for a Confirmation Day for this rally, a 90% up day hopefully this Friday- tomorrow with the Jobs report. If that reports can counter the ADP report and be just average to good we should have that day. Even an extremely negative report might work out ok as investors bet on a fed ease.. and see bad news as good news; in that case as well I think we go up and run into the Fed meeting where we could get some disappointment. I've taken my sober morning look around and I don't have a lot of ideas here are the one's I have-- 1. Delta Airlines. I really like what is happening at Delta they are making a lot of money off of high end travelers First Class. I only fly once a year but I fly on Delta and in First Class. Delta has no Boeing Max problems-- they don't own one of those planes! So as others take hits for cutting flights that's not a problem at Delta. Oil prices are way down. Warren Buffett owns more than 10%. Now Airlines are a very difficult section of the market to make any money in- so this take a bit of blind faith but I truly think Delta is a $77 stock now trading on sale @$55.00 2. CHWY is having an IPO. It's hard not to notice Chewey is everywhere. The UPS drivers worst day was when this Co started shipping. If you use the Peter Lynch method of 'Buy what You Know' which I do you buy into CHWY. My hesitation is I lost money on Blu Buffalo which I purchased because I feed it to My Rhodesian. So Buy what You Know only works half the time. Along with those two ideas we have our CHDN to worry about... is that our Big Gaming play? And Data Storage REIT play CONE. I only have those four ideas right now. For those of you that have bought all the Portfolio I would have you watch carefully Dropbox which was our first purchase into the decline! And I think the First one now to leave the gate. I'm expecting a big few days from DBX.- stoney
fwiw Stoney... I'm not (or at least wasn't) a big Dropbox fan. That one pretty much played out as I thought it would. https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/dropbox-dbx.326845/#post-4757093 I'll have to put them back on the watchlist, but I don't see the justification for that price. This whole tech cloud thing... is ridiculous. Is Peter Lynch still alive and kicking? He lived in CT too didn't he? I don't think he'd buy DBX... but he would be backing up the truck to get in on Chewy pre-ipo. Thats a good one. DAL is solid too.
Nice Call Van-! I think you were negative from the IPO. I like a stock that has gone nowhere for a year. Very much. I am a tech idiot. I do not operate, charge or own a cell phone. I get to know tech through investing only which I think gives me a good cynical eye. Before you take apart this cloud thing let me tell you about Zendesk. ZEN is a stock I'm sure I talked about here last year it was a bIG winner for me and it had that symbol I really liked ZEN. That was about as much as I understood about the company that they did something with businesses. Well Zen went from $33 to near $100 talking about cloud things the whole way. It has since retreated only a very little which ticks me off because I sold it out of everyone's accounts. Now I'm wondering about new price targets at $105. and thinking dang I'm a tech genius in a way... So my wife has a jewelry business and an online web site. I know how nothing gets accomplished online. It's a big GOOGLE controlled joke. pay off Google or you'll never get a natural hit from the outside world... Small companies that make the very difficult world of small business better online are attractive Adobe was one at a time and now when my wife wants to share photos and have her tech guy fix a problem or whatever they drop them into dropbox which allows them to conference over stuff I guess... It's still unclear to me but they like it. More importantly they just upgraded and prefer the upgrade. Back to me I've been looking at a stock that I felt technically was holding in during the worst of the beginning of this sell off and I went for one that had just had really decent earnings and then had the carpet puled out from them-- That was Dropbox. It was $23-$24 and the trade stuff happened. DBX has no exposure to China I don't think. I saw Dropbox as a stock that looked to me like Paypal did when I nailed that one before it's big run. It will be fun (I hope) to come back here next June (or earlier) and see where Dropbox trades. In my view it Has to be $36 or above. 10 points on a thousand shares... Reward tilts risk here I think.
Ok I don't think we get a massive up day today. The market will be in danger of flatlining -- going sideways -- until July. Will some saving of face by Trump on Mexico get the market excited... I don't think so now it's only the Fed most likely that can blast us off. The Fed or China but they go hand in hand; a big deal with China will make the market go straight up and then back down. Because the Fed would rightly hold off lowering rates. In the big picture They promised us flying cars and instead we are getting tires without air. Amazon is bigger than all of retail and within Ten years plans to fire everyone who is not a robot Amazon's Bezos says robot hands still decade away Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Jeff Bezos reiterates previous company comments about the timeline for full warehouse automation during a presentation at the re:Mars conference. Bezos says the tech challenges with building a robot that can grasp products as well as human hands should be solved within the next decade. Early last month, Amazon Robotics Fulfillment director Scott Anderson told journalists that the tech for fully automating a single order was at least 10 years away. WHAT HAPPENS THEN TO UNEMPLOYMENT? I Robot? Maybe they should be back in play.
New Week New Problems. I've been bitten on the penis by a Tick. Dear Shareholders. In the comics sometimes people become superheros after they are bitten by a crawly animal. I'm off to a weird start this year in the garden patch i already absorbed a spider bite to the left side of my leg a few weeks ago and this morning I found a horrible tick in my nether region. Right on the side. I would of noticed this last night-- damn the wine! But i would of noticed this so I'm thinking it's less than 24 hrs on. The thing is I'm a bit of a hyprochondriac I've had many diseases I think and beaten them all without going to the Dr. Right now I feel different. It's not just the extreme pain I feel a surging in my body and my brain is moving different-- More focused yes but more freaked out. I just don't want to do 20 days of antibiotics. How is this going to affect my managing of the Portfolio? I don't know! -- There was some Crisper news late last week: -On Thursday, after markets closed, the company announced $420 million in deals. Vertex (ticker: VRTX) will acquire a privately held biotech company specializing in gene therapy called Exonics Therapeutics, and enter into a collaboration and licensing agreement with another gene-therapy company, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP). This jump started the whole sector. CRSP itself is probably a buy now. We already have exposure with QURE. BZUN has brightened up and crossed $40- This is the Chinese Co. Still holding off. RealReal is readying an IPO that has me interested. This week comes CHWY. Motley Fool Highlights one of our stocks- Quietly marching toward important milestones UroGen Pharma's most advanced drug candidate, UGN-101, appears likely to earn marketing approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as the first drug approved to treat low-grade upper tract urothelial cancer (LG UTUC). The experimental therapy triggered a complete response in 59% of patients in a phase 3 trial, and 89% remained disease-free at the six-month mark. The company is preparing for potential approval and market launch in early 2020. Analysts expect peak annual sales of at least $500 million. >While impressive in its own right, UGN-101 might just be the beginning. UroGen Pharma expects to report phase 2 data for its second-most-advanced drug candidate in 2019 and could initiate clinical trials for its third drug candidate. RTGel technology is also being explored in partnerships with larger pharmaceutical peers. Given the potential to deliver enormous value to patients by altering the standard of care, the breadth of potential applications for RTGel, and the current market cap of just $800 million, investors might want to keep an eye on UroGen Pharma.<_____!
Two Interesting Pot Co's are listing in Canada this week. It's so weird Canada has kind of blown their lead by being too restrictive and California is the prime target the wild west-- Both of the companies coming public serve the California market. I feel tick bit in the sense that I've taken a licking in Green Organic Dutchman that's a Canadian grower and the early thesis was so much herb is grown in the California hills the black market will hurt those trying to get into the California market. Canada was going to be an clearer path to profitability. I now see the wrongness in my reckoning. It's Branding that's very important here and the food stuffs that are made and Branded, not just the dried flower & oil. New Listings One of the oldest cannabis companies in California will go public in Canada on Monday, leveraging its exposure to a potentially massive but struggling legal marijuana market. Harborside Inc. will list on the Canadian Securities Exchange under the ticker HBOR after closing a reverse takeover of another cannabis company called Lineage Grow Co. Its initial market cap will be about C$300 million ($226 million). Co-founded by pioneering pot entrepreneur Steve DeAngelo, Harborside received its first retail license in Oakland, California in 2006. “California is this big hairy beast to a lot of people but we grew up in it,” Chief Executive Officer Andy Berman said in an interview in Toronto ahead of the listing. “It’s this place that everybody would like to be in but it’s a gnarly, tough place to come into from the outside.” Medical cannabis has been legal in California since 1996 and the state legalized recreational use on Jan. 1, 2018. However, the state still has a thriving black market and legal sales actually shrunk in 2018 from 2017 amid a confusing patchwork of municipal regulations, high taxes and a surplus of pot. “I think we’re in for another year of figuring this out,” Berman said. “We just hope the market in ’19 is the size the market was in ’17.” Berman believes Harborside has an advantage with its 34 licenses in the state that’s estimated to be about a third of the total U.S. cannabis market.-!! He expects Harborside to reach C$80 million to C$100 million in revenue this year and to generate positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Jushi Inc., another U.S. pot company with operations in California, Colorado, New York and Florida, is also expected to begin trading Monday. The company will list on Toronto’s Neo Exchange under the ticker JUSH after raising $68.2 million in a private placement and will have a market value of about $370 million. Jushi’s founder and President Erich Mauff is Deutsche Bank’s former chairman of corporate finance for North America.<-- ha ha. I knew I should of worked at Deutsche...
In considerable discomfort at my desk. How humiliating it is to have to tell my trainer I can't work out due to extreme penis pain due to a bite. Ayyyy. How will I focus? This is an extreme test of my investing skills... <<Portfolio Member Update*>> KTOS Demand is strong and increasing The leadership position that Kratos has today with our tactical UAVs did not and cannot occur overnight for any company no matter how large. It will take multiple years, hundreds of millions of dollars and unique qualifications. And we currently see no competitor even close to where Kratos is today. This is from the last Kratos Defense conference call... On March 5, Kratos took an incredibly important step in executing the strategy, solidifying our tactical drone leadership position and the line of sight clarity to significant revenue generation as the Kratos-built AFRL XQ-58A Valkyrie successfully flew. The successful flight of the Valkyrie demonstrated Kratos' unique capability to rapidly design, develop, demonstrate and deliver a low-cost leading technology, high-performance product that is of great value to the customer. The version of Valkyrie that successfully flew is designed as a long-range strike and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance UAS. ...the Valkyrie as the loyal wingmen for both the F-35 and the F-15 no later than fiscal 2023, which of course begins in calendar 2022, and ensuring that both the F-35 and F-15 command control communication systems could control swarms of loyal wingman drones<--- Future Of war? Over the past several months, we have spent a significant amount of time on Capitol Hill, including since the successful flight of the Valkyrie. And we believe that there is considerable bipartisan support for this aircraft and Kratos' drone suite, which are low-cost, efficiency increasing and that protect exquisite and extremely valuable assets like the F-35 and F-15. In addition to the new Skyborg program, from a funding standpoint, in the 2020 DoD budget request, including in the RDT&E program element numbers, there is currently an excess of $100 million with the LCASD, LCAT or Valkyrie-related programs and initiatives. Also we are aware of significant additional planned Valkyrie and Kratos drone-related funding also tied to the fiscal '20 defense budget.<---- <<Breakout Alert**>> SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time 70.35+1.62 (+2.36%)
The Question is Can You Find An Investing Idea Every Day without forcing it-- This morning started slow I did my surf of the news etc... and then it came to me. Still doing research... but I think an IPO that doubles that doesn't sell fake meat is worth a hard look. I deserved an award for yesterdays chair time really toughed it out. I'm feeling less pain today I am going to try and work out I'm afraid folks at the gym are going to laugh at me. I have this spastic habit of blurting out my medical problems when people ask How are you doing?
Interesting about the Canadian pot/weed company. I bought stock in Miracle Grow last year. Made some money and it will be called away soon (covered call). Was thinking both the pot/weed play and also the "back to nature", vegan play. Pot/weed is a lot like 3D printers. You know there will be some winner and losers, you just don't know who picks up the most market share. Saw a lot of MG products at Loews so I went with it...
--ADDED FASHION RETAILER RVLV @ $34.45 TO THE ET PORTFOLIO YESTERDAY-- Hello Cabin. Miracle Grow is of course poison. They now have a natural organic offshoot but i don't trust it. The stock has always been a powerful performer. With MG you have to worry about all the farmers and what they are planting and not planting. There is another company I'm having trouble remembering the name CENT....!!!! Got It I'm not forgetting stuff!!! Central Garden & Pet-- I haven't checked in on them for some time I will today but I remember them devoting some amount of floorspace to grow lights and nutrients and all the stuff you need to grow good pot. That might be a cheaper way to play the theme. There are others-- there is a REIT that devotes itself to the space need for grow houses.. That's done pretty well-- There are some weird Ag companies that you think geeze why don't they just let some of their greenhouses to the bud growers? One in particular Landec LNDC. But it just doesn't seem to happen. I like SITE as you know this is more of a landscape play you know driveway, pool area, all that property maintain stuff. There too I wish the CEO would just hint at some way to profit from the craze... Back to the winners at the end of this year there is going to be an IPo of a managing group or blank check co I don't know what they are going to call themselves-- Venture fund guys, there are some really really smart wall street guys who are starting a fund & going public and they are growing weed in Colombia and shipping into Germany etc. More of a world view less restrictions. Look for a Pot Investment Fund called Northern Swan. Aside from some pure play California ideas-- the most attractive name to me now is HEXO.~stoney