Is it end of month already? Why the heck would that matter? I've heard that argument about wanting to look like your in the winners or something as if people don't look at cost basis when reading a statement. What would I know I prefer to toss my big account numbers and symbols into the closet without looking. It's a reflexive thing born from looking too much in the 1980's.... Well I did take a peek recently and despite my best efforts to ruin the account we are up nicely for the year when most folks are down... so timelines and conspiracies are best left to analyzing the Plunge Protection Team and whatever it is they do. Boy today shapes up as WILD & SCARY who's with me on that? Hate when the Fed chief is on the hill. Hate. Hate. hate. The SPX is on the move, finally: the SPX closed above 1378. That targets higher resistance at 1400, with a strong propensity to overshoot the mark meaning 1420 kiddies. Only in New York kiddies, only in New York. SPX 1376 is approximate key support on a near-term basis. Lets shoot up to 1400,then scoot back to the 1380 area and then zoom to 1420. Ok? The first lift was natural based off I believe the realization of the market that the recession has been pushed off a year with all the stimulus and by the time it comes THEN the housing crisis will have bottomed so natural economic cycles can run their course... so the last reveal is for Big ben to tell us that in fact he will be raising rates in the future not lowering them to reel in inflation which should naturally subside next year... how the market takes that is anyone's guess... people will tell you that the first direction is not always the real direction blah blah blah, in this case the first direction will probably be right. It is so unusal to rally off Fed speak and questioning that if it were to happen we would have to take serious notice. part of the philosophy of " Double Dip " that I have been putting out there is first you go UP before dipping again... everyone is so morose it's like bear markets never have rallies, they do lots of them. It won't be until the talking heads are saying maybe it was only a correction not a bear market that we will slide back into the muck. All of this is a long winded way of saying maybe there is some truth to the fact that after 4 weeks of a no go market traders were perhaps too eager for this bounce-- but then again were short covering to enter the picture after, say, todays testimony, well then we get up to some interesting levels indeed. ~si
on 2/25 on this thread I mentioned JRJC caught my eye, what do you make of a Chinese stock that's flat when their market is down 4%... Well I've been charting it like mad and letting it get away from me in the process. There are two negatives to this trade a dangerous speech day for the market to digest as well as this company reporting very very soon. I've had great history with this name from the $10 area up! So to even consider re entering a trade at $17 - $18 takes some guts and a good amount of luck.... $22 anyone? ~ stoney
Short sellers seem real nervous today. It's funny one little three day win streak and they make in their pants.... where is the conviction? Oil is still over $100 gas is approaching $4....
Agreed Frank critical area... The stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float include: BZH 73%; HOV 67%; UA 67%; FED 66%; SPF 65%; BHS 60%; DSL 53%; IMB 53%; BKUNA 60%; MDTL 58%; CONN 53%; ARTC 50%; MCHX 47%; FTEK 47%; CHNR 47%; TGIC 47%; TTWO 46%; BONT 45%; CFSG 44%; RATE 42%.. Not sure any of these are worth buying but I'm familiar with CHNR of course & CFSG, these homebuilders BZH and HOV as we head towards Spring are interesting... you know a name like " FED " has got to be looked at here in fact I remember this name from over the summer when I almost got talked into it by a McSmartypants broker.... Lets do some DD on FED. ~stoney
I would tend to agree. The local 10PM news last night was the most BEARISH I have seen it in quite some time, citing job layoffs at Safeway, consumers cutting back spending, etc. There is a "measured-move" in the works that certainly argues for higher SPX targets. You can find it on the "Charlie Gasparino Strikes Again!" thread that I created yesterday for those that are interested in a chart and projections to the upside.
Nice cross pollinate Landis! lol, I thought that thread was about the writers strike. Charlie has been adhering to that for quite some time.... ~si
Today is a battle for the very soul and future direction of the market those of you safely away from the action have no idea the tug of war behind the scenes, it's sick. As we enter the final hour we are at a very important inflection point for the market. If we can manage to generate a decent follow thru we could see a short covering pop,but a failure to do so now could still result in a late roll over... Start at the bottom and read up for the following this minute by minute account culled from some of my sources and bothersome brokers, you can see just how tricky this day has been... ~ stoney 14:33:51 Comment Indices now consolidating bullishly near rally highs & may not be done yet! What! 14:24:32 Comment Back to back SHARP UP bars pop the indices out across intraday declining channels 14:20:20 Comment Indicies aget an upside thrust & pop to test KEY resistance at NDX 1800,SPX 1370 Love that word thrust. 14:16:28 Comment First move up by the bulls!Pressing resistance... GO BULLS!!!!! 14:15:19 Comment The Battle here going on between the bulls & the hold of trendline & mov avg support & the bears with the declining tops lines & intraday mov avg resistance holding back the bulls 14:12:33 Comment indices are teetering on the brink of a roll over, as the bearish looking consolidations extend. 40 day mov avg support on the 60 min charts still holding,however & need to be broken to get a downside acceleration. On the other hand, the 5 day rising bottoms trendline on the NDX continues to hold & also would need to crack to confirm that another downside leg is underway. It's a BATTLE.... 14:06:05 Comment London shares close sharply lower; NY drops on data; results disappoint At the close, the FTSE 100 index was 110.8 points weaker at 5,965.7, just above the late session low of 5,960.3 and well below the early peak of 6,090.8. All the broader FTSE indices also ended lower, with the FTSE 250 index finishing down 190.3 points at 10,274.3. 13:53:28 Comment A slip back below NDX 1790 & SPX 1365 could set off another down leg this afternoon. A move over NDX 1797-8 & SPX 1370 with some decent thrust could turn it around. CONFUSION REIGNS this is a battle royal today in Mr. Market, all my mom knows is we are down 30! 13:48:09 Comment Now the bounce picks up some steam higher... yea baby! 13:47:09 Comment Indices fail to follow thru to the downside despite the break of the bear flags & try a bounce back ,but so far a muted one which could still easily roll over. Hummm? Hope? 13:38:43 Comment Crude Oil sets new all time high at $102.35, now up $2.57 to $102.21 Oh I just want to puke right now. 13:29:06 Comment VERY distinct intraday bear flags have formed on BOTH the NDX & SPX .Careful here! 13:17:23 Comment These intraday patterns , especially the current snapback attempts still apear to be bearish in nature & could still lead to lower prices this afternoon, unless they quickly get a surge to the upside & thrust out of the declining channels. 13:11:36 Comment SPX firms to test 2 day declining channel top resistance & lateral price resistance at 1370 13:09:20 Comment Lunch hour ends ,indices firming off retest lows. Finally wipe your damn chins already and get back to work. 13:02:07 Comment Indices roll over & quickly retest the lows on the SPX. Hate that word rollover! 13:01:38 Comment Technicals decidedly NEGATIVE today & confirming the weak morning / NYSE Adv/dec 3 to 1 negative ,Nasdaq 2 1/2 to 1. Up/down volume 3 to 1 negative & nearly 5 to 1 on Nasdaq. Yikes! 12:50:29 Comment NDX & SPX test intraday mov avg resistance . Important point here, as lunch hour draws to an end. Isn't it always? 12:41:26 Comment the pattern , especially on the SPX , now looks ominously like a BEAR flag. Totally lacks any upside thrust. uh oh! 12:37:07 Comment NDX presses 1795, initial minor price & intraday mov avg resistance 12:27:35 Comment Indices snap back to test initial minor resistance near NDX 1795,SPX 1370. SPX trails. Like that word snap. 12:23:45 Comment So far the restest has been successful & they're trying to stabilize & bounce again. Thank God 12:21:32 Comment. Yesterday's missed opportunity MELI ,extended its rally early on for another $2, reaching 38.40 near KEY resistance, before backing off 2 points buy NOW! 12:11:42 Comment Rally stalls & they are backing off to retest 12:04:34 Comment Chinese play & recent new issue VISN ,#4 % gainer on Nasdaq today +$1.54 or 17% & to new highs! Thank god stoney owns that one! Otherwise he would be getting mashed today! 11:59:11 Comment European markets close lower: FTSE: 5965.7 -110.8 -1.8%, DAX: 6861.6 -136.3 -2.0%, CAC: 4865.2 -103.6 -2.1% 11:58:54 Comment Bernanke says rising unemployment insurance claims consistent with higher jobless rate ahead. Also,says at the moment greater risks are to the downside, that is to growth and the financial mkts 11:57:42 Comment Snapback rally try now extending. Intraday resistance now at NDX 1795 & 1800,SPX 1369-70,1375 11:46:47 Comment Trying that expected bounce here, but it needs to pick it up with upside thrust or risk a quick failure 11:38:44 Comment Expecting the possibility of an intraday technical snapback near these levels 11:32:56 Comment SPX & NDX slip to more new session lows. SPX testsing KEY moving avg support on its 60 min chart 11:27:26 Comment NDX presses 5 day trendline, SPX presses Tuesday morning session support lows near 1364 11:26:06 Comment Indices slip to new session lows as rally try quickly fizzles. oops! 11:21:59 Comment ENER crossed $30 today for the first time in 7 weeks & remains in solid 5 week up channel, now above 21 & 40 day mov avg's on the daily chart. Had to throw that in! 11:17:23 Comment The SPX has now had a mini five wave decline off yesterday's resistance highs & may be in store for a better snapback try****** (1st bit of good news) 11:11:08 Comment Despite the SPX slipping to new 2 session lows,the NDX is still holding its 5 day rising channel bottom,but pressing on it here 11:04:34 Comment Indices roll over & spike lower .SPX testing session lows,NDX intraday mov avg support 11:02:02 Comment Bernanke says probably will be some bank failures; doesn't anticipate serious problems among large international active banks,says capital ratios remain good among the largest banks 10:41:25 Comment NDX surges across KEY resistance tagging 1808.6, but the SPX trails badly 10:40:14 Comment NDX runs to test KEY 3 day resistance at 1805-07 consensus. 10:38:27 Comment NDX surges into positive territory 10:35:46 Comment we remain near a VERY important point in this market. 10:31:55 Comment NDX approches KEY overhead 3 day price resistance at 1804-07 zone 10:30:19 Comment Indices firm to test resistance near NDX 1804-5,SPX 1375-77 10:26:50 Comment Hearing Microsoft-Yahoo in talks, YHOO likely raising white flag 10:20:18 Comment SPX forming mini bear flag 10:13:48 Comment Indices vacillating back & forth tryting to stabilize.......