I'm smelling big turn day and for only one damn reason. Today was the most depressing morning of talking head TV ever and in fact it was the first time that EVERY SINGLE MONEY PRO interviewed agreed, that more downside was ahead and to stay out of the market. Not a time tested indicator, I'll grant you but I'm going with it. Enough is enough. ~ stoney
gotta wonder if lots of guys went short the market into csco earnings. if so,they may want to cover just in case the fed gets overly generous again.
I think so NYH, could go either way into the close. We have had a buyers strike for quite a while now, maybe the sellers are doing the same. I noticed you are a big Giants fan by the way- GOOD FOR YOU ~stoney
I wouldn't be banking on a turnaround just yet. The main issue right now is the bond insurer uncertainty. If the insurers A-don't lose their credit ratings or B-get bailed out, we'll see your rally. If they don't then we will certainly see alot of downside. Let's remember that it's not just when everyone's saying the same thing that counts, it's when capitulation occurs (i.e. when the panic selling begins). We haven't had a real sell-off yet and I suspect we're due.
CAN U FEEL IT DOGZ!!! Hope you are looking at 50 point reversal off the Nazdog's low as I am. Punch up a chart of retail stks WTF! Those are some outsized gains boys and gals what is the retail index telling us? think about it. i am. Our faves URBN @ $28.78 up 7.8%! and at a high by the way only one. ANF @ $78.81 up 4.5%! JCG (J Crew) @ $42.55 up 4.2% BKE (buckle) @ $41 up 10% GAIA (more opn this one later they are ipo'ing a solar division no joke! @ $23 up quite a bit too. Other break out plays from our earlier threads GENOMIC HEALTH GHDX punch up search on this name- update over the weekend. SYNA- The touch people! Up over a stick from purchase yesterday looking good. EMKR- Another highflyer coming back to life. CREE- TOPDOWN where are you!!!!!! SIGM - @ $42 that's eright folks it's back- the stock we all trippled on earlier in the year and it's still freakin' high up there! .... ENER- buy me buy me buy me buy me buy me. ... you see all is not lost just most everything. ~ stoney calling the low thank you Cisco.
Finally. Wow how hard is it to turn one of these motherships around? This thread dated to the day the anchor in the mud but the big swing around has been painful if not a bit profitable ... Now the extension day and the dow has clearly broken a wedge pattern upwards... now, finally, we can stop barking about how much further we have to fall and we can start asking on how far up we can bounce? Are we still in an overall downtrend? Every right minded technical minded investor helper place that I run into seems to think so... I'm playing it different. This is a market of extremes and the extreme reaction to the housing situation stabilizing and getting better could overwhelm any technical erosion. Of course that's asking a lot from this housing market, but hey I'm buying one friday! The Advance / Decline line on the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA) is just where it was in mid-November and the Dow Jones Transports (DJT) is also really hanging in there and up 17% off the lows put in on 1/22/2008. The "smart money" NYSE specialists have just reversed field and for the last reporting week of 2/8 where they reduced their net short positions by 45%. The trend remains down until proven otherwise. But could all the fiscal stimulus now overwhelm these charts? Last Friday the McClellan Oscillator was a plus 5 after Thursday's minus 31. Wednesday's McC was a plus 52, Tuesday's a plus 11. So we remain neutral says the McClellan. That could mean that there is a lot of "room" for the market to move in either direction before any big snap back move fires. McClellen lore suggests that we will not be out of the woods, until we get deeper and uglier reads of minus 200 to 300 to set the stage for a rebound that will stick. Friday's CBOE Total Exchange Put / Call Ratio posted 1.15, Thursday's a 0.96, Wednesday's ratio was a 0.86. Tuesday's was a 1.01. Put / Call ratios are back at the high numbers suggesting that the bounce off the lows and subsequent retracement have increased the fear complex. Sigma diving has put the fear in me! But I continue to see some possibilities.... JRJC caught my eye, what do you make of a Chinese stock that's flat when their market is down 4%... We have a real problem in my house, my idea pad has been misplaced by most likely my wife... my filtering process is one of repeated re entering prices and vol on up and down days for particular stocks, all that information is floating somewhere else.... I think I remember Hanson Natural was on it... And of course Leapfrog, COIN and alas SIGM but what else was I following? damn. Now's when the short term memory thing is a bummer! ~stoney
Respected (by me) bear near throwing in the towel? From Tim Knight's the slopeofhope.com:There was a huge amount of bad economic news this morning (high inflation, crummy housing, plunging consumer confidence), and the market is surging higher. This is not good news for bears, folks. A market which moves up on bad news is, for us, a bad thing. We are approaching a real danger zone. Should the $SPX crossed above 1396.02, the bearish case is going to take another hit.... Couldn't of said it better myself Tim! ~stoney