In order to be a winner, you have to think like a winner. Deliberately thinking like a loser and then trying to "reverse" it to come up with a winning system strikes me as a waste of time at best. Architects don't come up with prize-winning houses by dreaming up the worst houses imaginable and then "reversing" everything. This thread is wacko.
I looked at my trading record during a bad period. I assumed all my loses were due to commission or slippage. Nop. the fees represented 15% of my losses. Where did the rest go? could my slippage be 20 times my fees? I wanted to except that fact over what the numbers were saying. I declared myself a genius. as i went to the bank to reload my account. But seriously where did the money go ? I could only assume that market maker knows the typical moves and went against me very consistently. the trading had a discretionary element to it so I am not sure If I can go back in the time frame and reproduce it. maybe some one can program my platform and reverse the buy and sell buttons and change -'s for +'s At one point i actually tried to loose as much money as I could. But I got too greedy.
my loosing trades during the time were consistant. that is to say 30% of them were loses (with a negative balance after fees ). If I took a subset of the trades, say the first 25% of the trades. the number was still 30% loosing (with a negative balance after fees) the same for the other quarters. This is consistency what many hope for over $ earned (as long as the result is positive. Doing the opposite should only yield the opposite and it should be just as consistent. That is to say, it is as hard to loose as it is to win.(putting aside fees) The thread is great and if people come out and can show consistency in loses during a stage where the same technique was used something can be learned. maybe people at that phase all do the same thing and buying the perceived breakout is where others take advantage of the beginner? Or it just may be that we are wired to avoid lose and to let our profits run to the point that they become losses. Or maybe there is ANOTHER element at play ? Some say that paper trading results and real trading result vary, for me i changed strategies (stupidly) when I made the switch. The thread is so great that I will try to keep my posts to a max of 10 paragraphs each with a max of 3 lines so as not to scare off people form it.If only I could space out my posts. How consistent are your loses ?? <-important
My guess (no "cheating" with slippage or commissions again) for a "system" that can explain this outcome without having any "edge" (positive or negative): - Take any system that you can think of (e.g. "Buy when crossing SMA 20 upward, sell when crossing downward" or whatever). - When winning take profit at +4 ticks. - When loosing ride the loss until it becomes really uncomfortable (say -20 ticks) Please notice that this "system" again cannot be simply reversed into a winning system.
hmm. Good point, either one should yield the same profit, something I believe. So what you are saying is that there is something in my head that goes off when I loose X $ and I exit. My head does not take profits. In this case reversing my head (not take profit and targets which I do not really use) would yield to profits.