Finding it hilarious that after the fact everyone is so bearish, come on guys.... Im still bearish and have been since I started posting here in 2006 and still think the market is going lower however bear markets do bring vicious rallies. I feel that many turning to the bear side are the ones that got bullish around 12-13k and got that little bit of a run to 14k, same thing I feel is happening now, all bulls turning bearish. I tend to always go in the other direction, another big dip probably below 6800 and im turning extremely bullish for the LONG LONG TERM. All the bulls turning bearish reminds me of the fools who said housing was not in a bubble, oil going to 100 and even the nasdaq going to 10,000.
14k not happening for many years, I dont see 14k until 2018 the earliest. Market is going to trade sideways for a long time.
I tend to agree. Today's close seems like a fairly clear-cut case of liquidation, redemption, margin call selling. That and a good dose of , "no fucking way i am carrying a position over-night in this mkt environment". Add to that a little , "holy shit we are dumping and actually going in the same direction for more than 15 secs. , let's jump on the short side", and you've got yourself a nice dump on the close. There was a big sell imbalance on the closer on JPM today and it seems all the financials to a good dump. Strange how mid afternoon all the financials turned south and lost their cookies after having been stronger early in the day. Seemed like there was some real skeptecism out there that the whole TARP program and forcing banks to take cash program will be the saviour for this mkt. MS got wacked today big time, JPM shit the bed, and GS was weak as hell. Let's see what the overnight brings. At some point I guess we get another violent rally, some stocks seem to be ridiculously cheap. But until big money is done being liquidated I think we see this craziness for a while. Seems like the wheels have been set in motion for a lot of this and it just has to play out. There is a huge domino effect in the mkt and each inch we go now seems to take down more and more people. So , as cliche as it sounds, de-leveraging is a process, not an event, and it's tough to say when this process will have run it's course.
i have been a bear and been in the rydex rytpx fund which i mentioned last year. i am hesitent to agree with a capitulation this week because everyone is calling for it . if it does not start monday night tuesday morn. then it will be put off until thursday, friday or tuesday night when obama wins. bgp
Interesting post. The end of supply side economics is here, but, consumerism (the soul of our country,) is not going to end. The only problem is that it will weaken considerably because the other shoe that's going to drop is unemployment. It hasn't even begun to sweep through the economy, but it will over the next two years. It could get as high as 10 to 12 percent. That will slow consumption.
Oil stocks also shit the bed on the close. XOM hit a high of just under $71 before 2PM and ended around $66. At least $2 down in the last 5 minutes. CVX also broke down hard.
I'll gladly take a sidebet with you on this one that we hit 14k sooner, maybe even 5 years sooner. But oil may be $300, and gold $3000... 14k still counts though.
Agreed. Enjoy this volatility gentlemen (stocky not included), for it will not last long... unless we see a Muslim nuke blast on US soil after Hussein moves in.