Imagine going to the 21 table and changing $1K into chips. Dealer hits 20 against your 18 and then asks for another $7K from your wallet. Your argument is as absurd as my analogy. Stop assuming that prices are continuous. Every noob option trader (save for sell-side, guys in hard-science fields, and some of those as well) go through the same OA 8-step program. Do you see yourself at step three? 1) omfg options! 2) f*ck, I am broke 3) ommfg I can SHORT these f*ckers?!!?1 4) f*ck, I am broke 5) IRON CONDORZ! 6) f*ck, I am broke 7) BUY options like Taleb at Paloma 8) f*ck, I am broke
no one is arguing the merits of any strategy with you. You keep trying to flex you "intellect" when it comes to options. Not once did I even say you were wrong and I was right. And where did I disagree with what you stated? I even agreed with you that it was possible. heck. Anything is possible. So tell me, where in this thread did I even suggest you were wrong in the risk of this trade? The only thing I'm getting from you is that you want to show how much you know about options. If you want to say my strategy is risky, fine , I've already agreed with that. Every strategy has its risk. I'm sure your strategies are 100% and I'm willing to bet your Rate of Return isn't something phenomenal either. It may be good, but I'm pretty confident to say its not consistently above 10% on average. So, please, tell me, where did I disagree with the potential risk of this trade?
I am up 63% in my IRA this year which can easily be vetted, privately. I am up less at work due to capacity.
F*ck my intellect. If you had my Wechsler number you'd know not to argue. This stuff isn't even calcII. In every post. You stated that "little can happen" on Friday before the close, when that is meaningless. Absurd. Anything can happen on Monday's gap when you're assigned. Pull your head out. You continue this nonsense bc you know you relate to the above 8-step comments. You're right, it's me... it's about me helping you and the cognitive dissonance the results from each of you, whom, "discover the New World."
Again, reading into things. I've been saying What I (me - not anyone else) personally believe that the likelihood of something happening in the last hour is unlikely. Its the same belief that YOU probably have when taking a trade. You think, something won't happen, which is why you make a trade.
Do you not make trades based on assumptions? or beliefs of something happening or not happening? or some sort of expectation?
You are thick or simply trolling. What happens in the last n-minutes of the last-trading day is meaningless, because: 1) You've received $30 (notional) in premium. You can't cover dinner at 5 Guys. It's not capacity constrained, it's retarded. Vastly more important: 2) You can walk into Monday, with an inside day in stat-vol, and see two months of those premiums evaporate. A two sigma move and it will cost you perhaps a grand. All for $30 in premium. My time spent on this thread is worth far more than a Q's worth of these premiums. You should take it to heart. I have no axe to grind or hidden psyop.
Yes, of course. Every vol trade I make has n forward vol (implied and stat) assumption; as well as a forward assumption on spot. wtf does that have to do with selling nickels, naked, with unbounded risk? Your assumptions are that prices are static and that hit rate = success. One gap and you'll be cleaning projectile vomit and diarrhea from your workstation. Worse, it will gap in your favor on Monday and you'll increase size, ten-fold.
sure sounds like you have an axe to grind. EVEN THOUGH, I've been agreeing with you the entire thread....on the exposure to risk...you're still arguing. This is the basic premise of this whole thread: Badtrades: yeah this is my strat. Its risky I know. Dest: yeah your trade strategy is really risky Badtrades: yeah I know its risky. Dest: Your strat is sooo risky!! BadtradeS: yeah i get its risky... Dest: Your strat is soo risky!! I know lots about options, but I won't tell you anything more than what you already know about your trade... Badtrades:...yes i know my trade strategy is risky... Dest: Its so risky!! don't you get it? are you dumb? yeah I get it, for your assumptions you're calculating a buffer % of vol for both current and implied. I'm guessing your trade process is like this: 1) Look at all the greeks, 2) use the greeks to come up with an expected value of a option contract. 3) plan your entries based on the expected value of said contract 4) add some buffer % for potential static vol and Implied vol 5) pick your strikes based off what you expect your strike prices to be. 6) pick a cap your losses if you're short premium. 7) pick an appropriate expiration date and date of closing. I really don't get why you're arguing with me about me agreeing with you that what I'm doing is risky... would it make you feel better if I told you that: 1) i also calculate the expected value of a contract based off a certain % move in the last hour? or w.e time frame I'm working in? 2) that I also then add a buffer % and pick a strike that is near or outside that buffer? because that is what I do. my expectation is to have the contracts close OTM...and i'd rather be short premium because sometimes you can win even if you're wrong.