You're right, your assumption won't be suddenly correct if you just repeat it a couple of times. And also correct that you won't be able to convince someone who watches wire transfers occur more or less instantaneously on a regular basis that such a thing is impossible. Not sure what you could possibly hope to accomplish there?
If I was the Govt I would ban transactions between banks, creditcards etc.. to crypto. After that 5 million dollar ransomware payout.
Well, you asked for an opinion and I told you how it is. I make markets in cryptos amongst many other markets and I'm more or less in the middle of the stuff you are denying. And if you don't believe that, you are free to send an email to Jane Street or Flow Traders which are authorized counterparties for the VanEck ETN that basically trades like an ETF. I mean, how can anyone ever think that an arb would take at least 10 minutes to complete? Do you know how the market would look like? With regards to your remittance business...do you really think that a wire is settled instantly just because it shows up after a couple of seconds in your online account???
I'm not sure what you think I'm denying? Let's talk about the specific example you raise, since you bring it up, arbing the NAV of VacEck ETNs against the underlying crypto. I'll assume you're a real MM so you're an Authorized Participant in the context of the ETN meaning you can redeem (if you're not then you're even more at risk). This example brings up exactly the kind of situations the OP raised. An ETN is not an ETF. That means a few important things when it comes to risk if you carefully read the prospectus. For example, you're counting on the ability to redeem if the price exceeds NAV, that's fundamental to it being an arb. Except "The Issuer’s ability to pay to the holder of a Note any amounts due in respect of such Note is entirely dependent on the success in realisation of the Series Assets for the respective Series.", meaning if they can't sell the crypto assets backing the shares you redeem for the calculated redemption price, you don't get that price. And then there's the part where VanEck can suspend redemptions "in its absolute discretion" during what it considers adverse market conditions. And of course, they get to create new series or not at their discretion. If you take a look at other ETNs that stopped creating new units, they can instantly balloon to huge premiums to NAV. And to top it all off, although the ETNs are backed by crypto, in reality ETN noteholders are still just unsecured creditors of VanEck. So a whole pile of risks here, a chunk of it due to the fact that none of this is even nearly instantaneous like the traditional type of arb the OP contrasted with crypto. This is an even worse case because it appears VanEck doesn't deliver you the actual crypto when you do a redemption like an ETF would do with a stock basket, so you can't even enter arb with the crypto itself as one leg like you do with arb'ing SPY redemption units, for example. As far as the wiring funds... If I wire in $5M to an account, it shows up in the account, and then I wire out a bunch of transactions that total up to $5M and they're processed immediately and show up in the recipient bank account immediately, then yes, the wire was settled instantly. If you don't consider the ability to use money received immediately, including irrevocably wiring it to a third party account as "settled" then I guess you're got your own definition of that word? This isn't your retail online banking portal you use for your personal or small business account, these are treasury management systems which are a whole different universe from what you may have experience with. As I indicated originally, the reality for retail folks is much different from institutional products, same in trading or banking. If you've experienced using a treasury management service at a major bank and not seeing more or less instantaneous wire transfers we'd all love to hear what bank that was? If you've never used a treasury management product, then again, its very unclear what you're trying to accomplish here, do you even know?
@MrMuppet @Sig doesn't know what he is talking about re: crypto arbs. @Sig has a serious case of Dunning Kruger. See https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/5350373
Dunning Kruger alert. You have no idea if your bank has extended you credit based on the intended funds coming in or that your bank doesn't hold funds deposited into your account prior to settling, doesn't mean the wire transaction was settled. Your bank simply just decided to extend your account credit.
Seriously I'm out. I'd have to write a wall of text to explain the same basic stuff again and again and it's just not worth educating the fish. Just wait another 5 years until everything is setup nicely for retail then go ahead and trade the funky charts and squiggly trend lines.
So that's a no to being a real MM or ever using a treasury management solution, thanks for clarifying. And apparently no to understanding what you're trying to achieve here as well. Never been called a "fish" though, is that some kind of British or German insult that doesn't translate well to English? Of course, no need to impose on your superior intellect to explain, I'm sure we wouldn't understand.
Why would you derive a "No" from the fact that I don't want to continue a pissing contest with you? A fish by the way is the idiot at the poker table who overestimates his skills and ends up paying everyones bills. I don't impose superior intellect, I'm just telling you from my own experience. If you don't believe me, fine...less competition. Just remember, the wise man asks the stupid questions...that's how he became wise.
Well here's a dead simple question for ya. Have you worked with a treasury management system at a bank or not, yes or no. I know your time is oh so precious.... or actually your banking experience is limited to your personal banking account, you have no experience in actual wire clearing times, but it hurts you so much to admit it you go the sour grapes route. Again, what you think you're accomplishing by that is the big question? And if there's anything incorrect I said about the specific ETNs you brought up I'd love to know as well, we'll need to let them know their prospectus is wrong.