I seldom see talk on here about actual trading strategies.. And being a trader that needs to work on defining his entries better I'm hoping we can get some feedback.. Would anyone care to discuss their entry signal criteria from today's action in the ER? or the ES, NQ or YM if you prefer.. I'll give you mine.. very simple.. please let me know what I need to improve. On the chart.. #1. We form a double top at the 11:20 bar.. and then the 11:35 bar closes down .. Would anyone enter short on the closing of this 11:35 bar?? #2. Two hammers are formed at support.. we seem to be in a trading range.. Long Entry here?? #3. We came off of a Double top but at #2 we formed a Higher Low.. the market shows a reversal bar at 13:00.. but the market then drifts sideways.. This is a buy signal to me at #3.. Being a struggling trader.. if anyone has any criticism please speak up..
Flashboy, I liked your opening post .. refreshingly truthful. Ok YM today. I use a predictive model. I go at the Open. I already know it is a BS day (Buy or low of the day before the Sell or high of the day). I don't expect much of a barrier, that is a dip, after my Buy. I expect a 5-22 point dip but likely to be nearer 5. It turns out to be of the order of 5 points. I have an upside prediction of 48 to 75 points bottom to top (BS) with a one in five chance it could max at 100. My prediction gives a first exit consideration at 13.45, then around 14.35 and finally around 15.40. I can also exit on a target profit. I can check where I am in my model as the upside number is building and whether there will be a slide of any worth from the top. This is a slower easy market today and less complex than other templates I have to play. Its a Friday and I'm also besieged and overwhelmed by business and legal matters. Distractions are really unwise. I like to take it really easy and just follow my trading .. nothing else when I'm trading. A story without revealing any real secrets, I admit.
I just enter on pullbacks in the direction of a trend. I define trend using a simple oscillator that's based off of the slope of a moving average. I then use Stochs (5,3,3) to look for pullbacks. When the stochs are below 30, I'm looking for longs. When they're above 70, I'm looking for shorts. I don't wait for them to cross up/down. I just confirm the entries by using simple candlestick patterns.
So the Sochs crossing doesn't trigger the trade but the candlestick pattern does?? Can you be a little more specific.. do you wait for a reversal candlestick.. or just one that closing strongly in your direction?
The stochs just have to be below 30 if I'm looking for longs and above 70 if I'm looking for shorts. I'm then looking for a doji or a hammer and enter on the close of that candle.
amazing, but it has taken me many years to understand that EXITS and risk management are the keys to success as a trader in the market. flip a coin, and apply your exit method and risk control consistently and you are ahead of most in this industry. defining how you are going to exit is where backtesting capabilities are essential. and by no means, am i real good at this but i am working on it. patrick
Thanks Forex, One more question if you don't mind.. Do you find the pullbacks less reliable if they are coming off of a resistance or support area?? I have one setup I look for which is a pullback to the 20 period EMA.. but I find the signal very unreliable when the market is pulling back after hitting a resistance area.. so in these instances I would skip the trade..
I'm on the opposite side of this view, given that we are individual traders and not market makers/specialists that need to be "always in". For me it's all about the entry: when and where you decide to begin exposing your account to risk. The ideal exit is just the reverse of the entry, but alas, we are not always given ideal exits after we have opened positions (as opposed to entries where it's all up to us).
forextrades, don´t you miss many of the best retracements waiting for the stoch to go below/above 30/70 when the trend is strong? I´m just curious, being new to trading I´m trying to learn to trade retracements looking at formations and volume. If you look at my attached chart for ym thursday you see that the best pullbacks to enter wasn´t confirmed by the stoch. But do you find that having this stoch rule for entries is giving you higher winning % over a longer period? Or maybe I didn´t get it right? best regards, Stalker
Sure, I can miss out on a lot of retracements. I'm trading forex though. Mostly eur/usd, and the stoch seems to oscillate to the extremes much more often than it does on the YM.