Can using a "tick indicator" improve my results slightly?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by canadian_dude, Jan 31, 2003.

  1. I am looking to get a slight improvement on my already great trading results. I don't use any of the traditional indicators most traders use, I am a system all my own. But I was looking to perhaps use some type of indicator to get slightly better results.

    Does anyone have any suggestions? I am not looking for a very complicated set of indicators of charts to follow by the second, that would only complicate my trade.

    My trading style is quite mechanical, and I like it that way because I don't have to second guess myself. And it has made me plenty of profit, so why mess with a good thing.

    When I enter or exit a trade, I just take out the bid/ask, because I don't want to risk not getting the trade at all, or the price really running away from me. But I really HATE paying the 1/2 point spread on the emini nasdaq, but that's the price I pay to be sure of getting the trade.

    But is there any fairly simple indicator I could use to maybe squeeze another half point out of the average trade I make? I have no experience using indicators, so I don't know which ones would be most applicable.

    Here's what I am looking for. I decide to enter a trade at a specific time, lets say 9:41 AM for arguments sake. I would like to use an indicator to "look into the future" for the next 10 to 20 seconds, and try to assess where the futures will be trading 10, 20 or 30 seconds from now.

    If I had such info, I could decide to either make the trade now before the price goes against me, or make the trade 10 seconds later when the price is slightly better for me. But I am going to make that trade NO MATTER WHAT, no indicator would convince me not to make the trade at all.

    Perhaps what I am asking for is impossible, after all, if anyone could predict the future, they'd be a billionaire. But at the same time, I just wonder if there is some simple indicatopr out there that could help me gauige the VERY SHORT TERM direction of the market. Of course it would not be right all of the time, but if it improves the total return on my trades ON AVERAGE at all, then it would be worth following.

    The reason I thought of the "tick indicator" is because its one of the few indicators I know anything about, and its a very simple thing to follow. I have enough to think about before I enter a trade, and don't know how much more info I can process.
     
  2. What you seek is pure folly. Market's noise range is much bigger than that. :D
     
  3. Dustin

    Dustin

    I also have a mechanical system to enter trades, then use very basic TA on a 3 min S&P 500 chart to exit. I watch the T&S of emini's, but use the cash index for charting because I find it to be smoother.

    I use Directional Movement (14,14) without ADX and StochRSI (14,14,2,1). The simple way to see short term direction is to just see if DI+ or DI- is on top, and whether the StochRSI is near the top or bottom. The market will most likely move higher when the StochRSI is near the bottom on the DI+ is on top, and vice-versa. To make this more complex I add longer time frames to see what the conditions are in 30 min and daily, but the 3 min is plenty most of the time.
     
  4. Dustin,

    Do you find it feasable to trade the minis solely on the chart of the cash index? The intraday divergence between the two is often very substantial.

    -blueberrycake
     
  5. Dustin

    Dustin

    I don't trade emini's...just watch them as an indicator for my exits. I trade listed only.
     
  6. Want a Buttinski reply? :)
     
  7. H2O

    H2O

    If you're looking for a half point on the NQ for your entries, you might try looking at the depth of the market and T/S. This is not for the next 10 + seconds but you can get a direction for the next TICK.

    Hope this helps
     
  8. I use the tick, but not for scalping. The tick is most useful at tops and bottoms of the market. If I see 2 large downticks two days out of three, I get extremely long. Doesn't seem to work as well on the upside, or maybe I'm just caught in the frenzy and don't notice it....

    Other than extrteme readings, I think its a waste of time. Maybe there is an aggregated moving average which has a correlation with market direction, but I have no clue as to what the parameters might be.