If the market goes down on Monday that will be it "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The coronavirus economic relief bill being finalized by the U.S. Congress will include a one-time $3,000 payment for families and allow the Federal Reserve to leverage up to $4 trillion of liquidity to support the nation's economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virus-aid-bill-includes-3-133834616.html The question should not be how much lower will the market go but how high will it go on Monday?
At present Democrats are dragging their feet but in the end there will be a package on Monday. If not then we are in trouble. There will also be a coordinated process to bid the market up. With mark to market it does not get any better. An exaggerated example. Let's say a stock is down $20 during the day on big volume. During the last 15 mins it goes from -$20 to $10 on much smaller volume. End of the day market is up. 20,000,000 vol down 2,000,000 vol up Give me $4 trillion to play with and I can keep the market up for a long time. There are many cabals that do the market. The word will be out - sell and you are dead. Talked to Tim Geithner. He said that was the message that Hank Paulson gave everyone in the room. "The government is going to bail you out, but if you short this shit - hide."
S&P Futures IMMEDIATELY limit down -5% as soon as they opened tonight. Yep, this bitch is going to 1500 by the end of this month.
Whatever package Congress agrees on will not be enough, so many businesses will end up bankrupt. Many more people will get virus and live through it, the weak will die. I will reverse and buyer/hedged at 1650 in ES capturing nearly 75% of the range of past 9 years, always early. If 1650 happens too soon, will delay entry. Trade long enough, bear/bull markets happen for variety of reasons. Don't try to have a reason but knowledge of extremes.
Back in 2008, people thought the sky was falling and this great land of opportunity will soon become a wasteland of broken dreams. But what happened afterward? The stock market exploded and went up like there's no tomorrow. (Pun fully intended, dammit! )
All these bearish threads and Dozu losing his confidence in the bull market leads me to believe we are near.