I trade Forex only. . So far, in the 10 months of study,trading,and practice, I can see that many things are clear.... s/r points are profoundly key. fib levels are reliable, candlestick analysis works, CCI works in its way, SMA's help, trendlines done correctly are reliable tools.... my vision for trade entry is good. the most important lesson Ive learned in recent months is to focus as a central core of my vision...watching Price Action. Price action is like a central core around which the indicators, the trendlines,CCI, SMA's, s/r and fib and pivot points,all provide the info ,the confirmation of what the market energy is doing, the strength of bulls vs.bears,at every moment. My entry times are good,and my sense of direction is 90 % correct in pre-trade analysis. I see all s/r points, etc... The next step in developing complete vision is this question I posed. Aside from seeing the 1 minute candle Doji's,etc,happening at critical clock time,at critical s/r points, etc.... is there any kind of ....understanding,besides this data,that can tell me ...How long is this trade going to last? Is this a 1 hour trade? a 15 minute trade? etc....Its even hard to frame the question right. The idea, is that when I do extensive pre trade analysis, it all gives me a 'feeling' as well as analytical understanding. and when I sense the right entry time comes, it gives me a 'feeling' as well as the technical data I see. when I am following a trade, I see the s/r points ,the clock time, al the indicators ,all telling me something...but all the data also gives me that 'trading feeling instinct about the 'market energy', the Price action energy that is flowing along. I want to have that feeling flow with the price action and I'm developing that . Which brings me to that next question ....can one develop that 'feeling' or understanding of ..."How long the trade will last?" Thanks for any constructive thoughts. experts invited. Tom
you can "guesstimate" the timeframe....... overlapping,multiple time frame charts and fibs, pivots. You have to acustom yourself to seeing a number of these things together in real time..... and just keep studying the behavioral chart patterns and even save the charts(print them out too) for further study and memorization. It helped me alot. Now, my brain automatically recognizes setups(without thinking twice) and I can enter a trade without second guessing myself out of the trade. It takes TIME.... it took me a lil over a yr(studying the charts almost everyday) to recognize when certain moves in the market are about to end, retrace, etc.... without depending on indicators exclusively. But I do use indicators to help me get CONFIRMATION. STUDY AND MEMORIZATION.... bcuz remember, alot of forex price movements are based on repeating bahavioral patterns, especially on intraday charts. Love those FIBS!!
Good progress Tom and your best post to date. The answer is a wee bit elusive because there is not a simple key to unlock the puzzle. Yes you can develop a certain amount of "feel" and work out the energy of the move, but there is always a number of cycles working with or against PA that at times will get the better of feelings. So there is not one time frame that always unlocks the internals of the 1 hour - it constantly changes. I think it's time for you to do some study on Hurst and see if that helps shine a light on what you are trying to solve. Well done
================ Re; Put it simple Tom Trend1,2; Trends are best measured , if i had to pick one time frame; & i dont have to pick one time frame ,but to put it simple. I would pick daily charts, learning a few stocks real well; i daytraded one time on 20 day/daily charts because my intraday charts went down, bid ask is real handy anyway/any chart, for profits.................................................................................... Hourly charts on 20 days are handy; but more important wisdom, look/study daily charts/bid/ask. Reason follows; daily charts bull market,[big time above 200dma] daily charts bear market[big time below 200 day moving average] ============================================== ============================================== ========================= --------------------------------------- murray TT
A big concept of price action is how the price has acted in historical ways. Lets say from 9:30 to 10:30 the entire market is making quick and volatile swings. The market has made a slight uptrend for the first half hour and a slight downtrend for the second half hour. On an average of 10 minutes there is a full up and down swing that qualifies as a swing. That means the up swings last 5 minutes and the downswings last 5 minutes. If you are trading the swings and not scalping or trading the entire trend than your time frame of trade would be the timeline of the swings. Once you establish that the swing is in it's downswing part you look at the average amount of time that the previous downswings have been in. If the downswings last 5 minutes and you are shorting into a downswing than don't expect to hold onto the trade any longer than 5 minutes. This example is ideal and you will rarely see the exact setup that i describe but successfully trading price action is simply the skill of pattern recognition. In a sense each day has it's own personality which means if you can sense the personality than you can profitably trade it.
I hate to spam you with my own educational thread but I encourage you to visit it nonetheless. Unholy Grail to Success: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=144884
Many thanks,everybody for your kind words and advise. I will look into Hurst. Thanks,Y, for that. I feel a similar connection to your ideas and process,Sal and joe,all sounds good and everyone else, all good thoughts thanks again. Its a funny thing this process of developing forex trading skills, .... its a great thrill when you make a big breakthrough. so much hard work, hundreds of hours over many months of study ...and when you finally get something important to sink in....like seeing something clear for the first time. very encouraging. I'm getting good at seeing/picking the tops and bottoms,and I know that many good experts say they dont try to do that. But so far, I seem to be developing the vision to see it . so when I start with that vision,in mind, as my target...and as the session moves along, and I see Price moving that way,or reversing where I expect it to,I am seeing that my pre session analysis is often very correct....so I feel inclined to place one trade and let it ride the whole way for 4 or even 8 hours to my projected target. But my training in these 10 months has been mostly intraday, with a focus on the 5 minute,1 minute,and 1 hour.... looking to scalp pieces in short trades between s/r points. it takes a lot of hard work playing 20 trades that way, when I could make the same money placing one good trade at the top (or bottom) and watch it hit my target 100 pips later. I guess I'm just addressing one of those classic discussions about which trading style is 'better', or easier for people. When I said that my pre trade analysis is good enough that I pick the right direction 85 or 90% of the time, I'm encouraged by that vision,and somehow, would like to learn ,or understand, whether its possible to 'see' the price action moving through the session,on many time frames, in such a way that will confirm that the target is still good,that there arent any reversal warnings in sight,....without having to watch every moment like a hawk all thru the day.... you know what I mean,... and worry at every s/r mini reversal,if its time to close now, or stay the course. Maybe what I just need is to keep practicing what I'm doing and the more experience I get will add to better vision, as you said joe,. theres no easy key to unlock this question....maybe thats why they call it ' work' when you go to a job. I wish I could add more to my ideas ,to make a contribution to the study,but I'm just advanced beginner still. I love this awful puzzle game, forex. Its such a great feeling when you get to a certain point of skill that you see steady success ... all that hard work paying off.believing in yourself and fighting thru the discouraging moments, etc. I guess we all understand this human struggle, and why the good experts want to pay it forward to help others. I would aim to do that too when I can. thanks again. Yes, love those fibonacci levels, and the s/r points and price action. and crazy trendlines.
Study holding over the weekend. If you can tap into the rules of that strategy it will be very fulfilling.
thanks neo. can you elaborate on that ....holding over the weekend? Ive been trading and practice trading for 10 months and Ive never once thought of the idea of holding a trade thru the weekend...!! whats wrong with my brain sometimes ? but I always gripe to myself about the oanda 10 pip spread that always starts the new week....and they keep the spread 10 pips for the first 4 hours most of the time, so you cant really enter a trade until the opening energy is a more neutral place.
Look at all the tradable currencies. Bring up a 30 minute chart. Look at the weekend fluctuations of all the tradable currencies. That means that when the currencies finishes the week out low it opens high. All about a probability game. A lot is put on the line with a weekend hold but if you can be right more often than not it would be very profitable. Most cannot stomach the hold. To me it is no different than weekly swing trading.