Can the Euro Survive until March?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Illum, Dec 16, 2011.

  1. Illum


    The news is so bearish, the market feels like it's paused looking into the abyss. I hear respected people like Michael Platt saying its toast. This will make Lehman look like a cake walk. I can find no reason to be bullish. Of course a few minutes here or there a nice bounce. The inflation trade is getting ripped apart across commodities, bonds are ridiculous. The 15 min bars are starting to get wild. Ripping up and down. Indicative that everyone, confused, losing. Is thing going to collapse? Can you find any reason for up or flat? I can't even see this making it another three months without a bloodbath.
  2. Rocky2


    The dilemma is like this

    Just based on reality you should short market and buy gold.

    Turns out its not that simple.
    Exchanges can manipulate gold price as they already did by doing large margin increases forcing the price down and markets can be pushed up by Central Bank print and buy manipulation which has already been done.


    My friend

    I leave it to you

    vomit or don't, that's the question :( :D :mad: :cool: :eek:
  3. Not sure if the Euro will be modified within 3 months because of everyone dragging their feet. There is no doubt that it should.

    The concept of unified members only works if there is some semblance of equality. It is now known that some members now lied about their initial conditions.

    Countries with problems can not just deflate their currency. In theory they have to adopt a very stern economic program. The problem countries do not have the political will to do this or the discipline to actually administer the policy if adopted in some token gesture.

    Everyone knows the Euro is doomed. The current delay is just giving each country some time to try and figure out how they are going to de Euro.

    Look at any economic or political problem and the reason is simple - too Big.
  4. Going into 2004 had the largest historical puts. Many smart longterm traders started shorting and lost it all as the markets slowly grind up. Everyone saw the housing collapse coming, yet markets kept making new highs. Stupid stock market never reacted to reality until Lehman collapsed. Academics who never put a trade in their entire lives tell us markets are smart and have predictive powers, the fact is stock Markets are generally stupid and more often insane.

    The moral: You can never succeed trying to understand stupid or insanity. At least that is my hard earned conclusion.

    You can't trade somthing that is illogical and crazed stupid using rational logical methods. That is why doctors and engineers have 99% failure rates in daytrading, same reason blue collar types do well when given a system, they don't think much and trade what they see. Rationality and fundamental analysis does not work unless you are doing multi decade buy and holds.

    Trade what you see. Reading too much market analysis will leave you confused.
  5. when speaking of the EU and the Euro, they have to be separated
    which - if any - countries leave the EU doesn't mean the end of the Euro
    Germany definitely doesn't want to give up the Euro, and individual countries that
    left the EU having to revert to their former currency would face greater financial-
    debt problems than currently experienced
    reversion to former currencies would only add to the financial problems of all EU
    members, so that isn't the major consideration of the Euro existence

    charts wise, the gbp has a distinct appearance the next wave down is underway
    the 1984 low of 1.05 to the $ may see the gbp back there again
    2008-2011 saw what might be interpreted as a base for the $ , and this formation
    on the eurusd chart could be interpreted as a H&S , its new wave down began in
    May this year
    money wise, a lower Euro means lower export costs, but higher import costs
    attached is the current PPP chart of currencies against the $, the Euro is down
    to 2-3% over valuation compared to a high above (?) 25% , and that at a current
    price still in the 1.30s

    there isn't a straight currency/economy v currency/economy valuation going on
    but also a debt problem - two depending on your pov - that's part of the equation
    although the reality is the debt problem exists throughout the global village
    disintegration of the EU because of the debt problem would cause chaos, not of
    debt alone but a change from one to many countries; dozens of exchange rates
    tariffs and import duties, varied and different standards, no quotas/controls, the
    re-introduction of passport/border controls, etc, etc, etc, including the renewed
    now higher costs of doing business, the old way

    at the last hour I expect the ECB to step in and provide the funding, after all the
    debtor countries have been squeezed to their last drop, but . . .

    considering the various US indicies, there's a case for the formations from 1999
    to 2011 being H&Ss, the exception is the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq which both
    formed double tops between 2007-11 , and what all these formations speak to is
    Depression; a Major reversal underway, not just the famed 'double dip'

    bottom line, the Euro will still be around in March

    attached chart: 12-16-11 PPP currency exchange rates relative to the US$
    these charts get updated on a daily basis:
  6. Illum


    "at the last hour I expect the ECB to step in and provide the funding, after all the debtor countries have been squeezed to their last drop, but . . ."

    I can't see the European union being over. You don't rebuild the tower of babel for nothing. They are going to be one. So their will be a solution. But.. No one is agreeing to fall in line. So if we think they are going to print, they will step in... Why would they step in and allow the countries to continue on their own path. Would it not make sense to crash the system and provide the solution afterwords which includes falling in line or more specifically, ceding economic authority in full. Giving up all economic sovereignty is not easy, see England, they would like to control their own debt. Would these nations more likely agree now or be more willing after they are crushed?

    So I too agree in the end the ECB steps in. It just seems this process could be extremely volatile and serious corrections similar to Lehman are incoming and soon. Always ready to be wrong, but its looking ugly.
  7. Wallet


    The Euro will not crash, but it will pull all currencies/markets within a breath of total collapse..... the solution will be global, and everyone will gladly accept it, as the though of the inevitable will be too horrific to imagine.... get ready everyone , the Fed ordered stress test of our banks are about to expose our vulnerability to the Euro Contagion.
  8. always did miss the d mark.......

    it should be up and trading shortly.

    the square heads cannot sell beemers at zero to the masses.

    Ja! Das ist gut!


  9. I am long gold, short DJIA and EURO.

    I am either really smart or really dumb.

    The market will let me know early in 2012.
  10. zdreg


    I am either really smart"

    no matter how it turns out the above statement shows that u are not smart.
    #10     Dec 18, 2011