Can Start Buying Natty Now

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Comanche, Jul 11, 2007.

  1. Today was the last day for this contract to test the lows, we are now setup for a stronger rally on short-covering. Same dynamics as when I started this post in play. Buy dips.
    #51     Jul 18, 2007
  2. yeah ok, i'll admit, tstops are useful for reversal protection, except when you get weekend gaps or volatility changes
    #52     Jul 18, 2007
  3. Sequoia


    Hello here is my technical analysis today :

    A buy signal on Natural Gas has been given according to MACD indicator. It is yet to be confirmed later on with the breaking of the main resistance barrier but yet, it is encouraging.

    Natural Gas is on a gentle down slope, oscillating between 6.30 and 6.80. As seen previously in our last NG analysis, some strong resistance is awaiting NG on 6.80 level. Some buy position can be initiated right now and should be reinforced later on 6.80 resistance breakout. Entry position shall be protected with a stop loss level under 6.35.
    Our main objective will then be 7.40 level.

    Entry point > 6.60
    Objective : 7.40 (12%)
    Stop loss level : 6.35 (3.8%)
    Risk / Reward ratio : 3.20

    What do you think ?

    Sequoia Trading Club
    #53     Jul 18, 2007
  4. buy dip mode continue. Last 2 sessions saw some good winter strip buying, moving higher than prompt in change. I feel this is not only some end-user buying, but buying from the short fund as a hedge against his short aug position. Have not seen what appears as any short-covering in here yet, more along the lines of the long fund continuing with the offer sweeps. In fact, I did see many sweeps of bids in the same manner that has been noticed for the past several weeks, leading me to believe that the short fund is adding to his potential pain.

    Earthsat bumped up their storm forecast by 2, saying that despite the typically quiet july, they are expecting an above normal season.

    Remember, this is not a fundamental market at this moment, it is ALL about the position dynamics. The pain is on the upside!!

    Weekend cash may be a little soft in the morning, that may provide you the dip to buy.
    #54     Jul 19, 2007
  5. good assesment btw sequoia, did you execute?
    #55     Jul 19, 2007
  6. Sequoia


    Thank you Comanche. Yeah, I am long on Natty on 6.70 level. I am long as well on OJ (about 135) and Coffee (about 112).
    I don't know my exact entry points because I am trading commo through derivatives in France. I am a swing trader so it's all good. I hope to be able to trade futures some time :)
    I'll post my latest analysis on OJ on ag
    forum ;-)

    sequoia trading club
    #56     Jul 19, 2007
    #57     Jul 20, 2007
  8. There's a little support coming in here, but below 6.4180 we should target 6.338
    #58     Jul 20, 2007
  9. Sequoia


    Well... We shall see but my analysis might be invalidated, yeah. I stay confident though. But 6.80 is definitely THE resistance to break.
    #59     Jul 20, 2007
  10. what a bad day...

    bought 6.62 at open or intraday scalp.. only to endure a selloff.

    also decided to cut half the position at close, to avoid the inevitable gap down.

    this is not going anywhere yet.. maybe after august expiration.
    #60     Jul 20, 2007