Can Start Buying Natty Now

Don't forget we are down 5% today alone after a 20% down week.

I hope your second shot works out.

 

I actually made .036 on that.
Because it was not improving I have kicked it out in time. See thread above, I posted it real time.

This is not a regular habit for me but last week I had a good run in DAX. I am risking .050 to male .150.

GC

 

Another Monday gap and I'm -.20 and out. I think I was quite early this time... Perhaps simplyloge is onto something w/ a 4 handle in U before ex., and then we move higher from there?

Good luck folks, stepping aside on NG!

 

i've been schnitzeling a little UNG

since it's so UNLEVERAGED, and its in my IRA, i can afford to wait and keep adding to position on weakness

these are commodities after all. the best cure for low prices are low prices.

i did the same thing with oil and it was a great play

i don't have the capitalization to sweat every tick with NG. it's just too whippy and nasty.

i'll trade up to 10 contracts of YM, but even one NG makes me sweat

 

i wonder though what effect contango/backwardation of the strip will have on the UNG etf versus the USO. As we know, the USO has -way- underperformed crude front month since for the most of 06 and 07 its been in contango.

We'll see how the bell shaped curve of NG affects the UNG price... hopefully it won't be at 25.00 next yr even with front month NG at 6.50 12 months from now.

 

no buy signal yet.

 

Thank you for your thoughts.......but i could be completely wrong. Clearly there is tremondus downward pressure right now and i have to respect that. I do think 4.75 to 5.00 is in the ofting.......but as i noted in my other posts i am ready to reverse at these levels. I shorted last Monday 6.43 Sept......and remain short today. I am watching a wave off Africa currently that has some low pressure.......but the dust off the Sahara .....and wind shear should keep it in check......but we will see. For perspective.....last Monday i also sold the UNG 44 ( first time i have played in that sand box......vol is 42%....what more could you want....sold UNG44 calls 2.25....and covered them on Friday.....so becoming very wary of the weather.....just a note to say that Sept is the major hurricane season ). But i am remaining short on my NG until i see some buying......because no matter what.....( selling = record volume last Monday..... if you are a hedge trying to raise cash we should have seen much smaller decline since they have been net short ) ......but on my seasonal trade.....still looking to reverse soon........for all who are long.....i hope we get a nice move to 9.15 in Oct.....time will tell

 

my understanding with UNG is that contango will negatively affect it the same way it affected USO

and of course that, contrarily, backwardation will positively affect it

regardless, evne GIVEN backwardation, the USO play was very profitable

i am liking UNG here for the same reasons i liked USO back when it was $10 cheaper

 

I am out at 5.494, - .011. @ 2:31am.

By the way for those that use TS exclusively, TS does not repost bid/ask/last properly. Totally off.

Around 1:58 the following inside quotes were on the screens:

TS: 5.504b 5.028a ?
IB: 5.504b 5.509a

this goes on for hours sometimes (not the first time I saw this)

at 2:28

TS: 5.494b 5.517a ?
IB: 5.494b 5.509a

So TS for long periods of time did not show the inside ask and the last price is also shown incorrectly.
BTW, I have tried the refresh button.


Needless to say I am trading NG in the IB account.

GC

 

did u sign up for the nymex datafeed in TS?

if u didn't, TS will show delayed data.

IB doesn't charge extra for nymex. TS does iirc. so, if you haven't paid for NYMEX with TS, you are not getting the current and complete data