HOLY shit what a busy day. And we were promised years ago that paperwork would be cut with the advent of computers. I think our little office chews up a tree a day. Anyway, the startegy looks to be in full force on this area being a launch pad for a short-covering pop. The market weakness was bought late day by the fund strategy I had outlined in this post. I think tomorrow could be a day we at least re-test the 6.84 area from Wednesday. 6.955 is the minimal retracement from here, however I feel we could could easily get to the 7.16 area. From there all eyes will be on tropics and heat forecasts. Anything alluding to tropical developement and we may get a violent short-covering pop withthe specs net short. The fund on the buy side is relentless!
Nat-Gas had a horrible close. Looks like the Wave 4 counter-trend "bounce" is over with and we are heading lower once again in an effort to finish off the sequence down from the 8.52 mid-May peak. If 6.849 proves indeed to be the end of Wave 4, target zones for Wave 5 are 6.108 - 6.099 and also 5.650 - 5.635 where Wave 5 equals Wave 1 and the 1.618 fib-extension. After that, we could have a real nice rally. ( Hurricane? )
I wouldn't have called it a "horrible close". We closed right near the high RTH. We'll see if there is any follow-thru tomorrow. OldTrader
Great close today, momentum is building. I saw my fund buying in waves on ICE today, strategy intact. Also noteworthy and a bullish sign is someone is bidding up the Z6 NY basis for winter. This has been faily dead lately and drifting lower until now. Buy the dips!!
Also on a fundamental note- this is an excerpt from a pro met. There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. However, there is there a major development to report--it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure (Figure 1). This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season. I'll have an updated forecast on this pattern shift Monday, when I issue my bi-weekly hurricane outlook Jeff Masters Complete blog here
For what it's worth, T Boone Pickens this AM said he expected NG to continue down into 2008. OldTrader
"The market weakness was bought late day by the fund strategy I had outlined in this post. I think tomorrow could be a day we at least re-test the 6.84 area from Wednesday. 6.955 is the minimal retracement from here, however I feel we could could easily get to the 7.16 area. From there all eyes will be on tropics and heat forecasts. Anything alluding to tropical developement and we may get a violent short-covering pop withthe specs net short." Well that answers all my questions from this morning!