Can Start Buying Natty Now

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Comanche, Jul 11, 2007.

  1. A dynamic that I have been waiting for has entered the market again. The strategy will defend the general 6.50 area, buying dips below it agressively. Market is flush with a spec net short position, risk/reward is not good on the short side at this point.

    My thoughts are any weakness post EIA report tomorrow will be agressively bought, and if no weakness from report then buying still enters heavily.

    There are two very large funds here about to do battle, the one that is short is the smaller of the two, the one that is starting to build length now isn't shy.

    Recommend scaling in length here pre-EIA and hope for some weakness to add on a dip.
  2. Surdo


    Maybe it will hold 6.50!
    Natty is a Roulette wheel.

    I only trade it on extremes, so I hope it gets pounded Post EIA.
  3. Surdo


    Where will the wheel stop today?
    $6.505 last, EIA in 2 hours.
    67 degrees here in NYC outside the NYMEX, she's going down................before she bounces!

    good trading!

    el surdo
  4. Still waiting for pop, stay short for now.
  5. bh_prop


    Anyone besides me like long NG, short CL here? Relationship is out of whack. Clearly the trade is fading the respective daily trends, but going into hurricane season I like it.
  6. Alot of small speculators long too it seems. These commercials can be very early, and wrong for long periods of time. Look at their recent record in crude oil, for instance. Any thoughts?

  7. bh_prop


    "Alot of small speculators long too it seems"

    I cannot recall a single COT where the NG small specs were anything but long. Didn't matter if price was $2 or $12 those little guys are always long. So you really have to ignore their position and concentrate on large specs vs commercials
  8. I don't follow this spread, but clearly NG has missed the rally in crude and RB. What would bother me here IF crude takes a hit, that NG is going to be the leader on the downside. I'm not predicting crude taking a hit right now, just an observation.

  9. By the way, for those interested, there is a natural gas ETF. Symbol is UNG.

    #10     Jul 12, 2007