Jack Hershey's first winner. He had all 3. It was actually a fixed race and they were all trying to lose.
Mav, no real handicapper goes in with a preconcieved notion of whether the win, place or show bet has the edge. Each of the pools is unique and segregated and as post time approaches they can calculate within a range where the advantage lies. Without the "order flow" into the individual pools (which cannot be known in advance) there is no way to know where the advantage lies. That said many expert handicappers will limit there calculation to only the win and show pools and have a bias for the show bet when the numbers stack up. The reason they prefer the show pool to be the advantaged one is that they are generally prepared to bet the horse to win but will gladly switch to the show bet if the step down in payout is even a shade less than their numbers show it should be.
lol, cmon guys, you must be putting me on. Is it even possible that the ignorance runs that deep and wide. Swan, what magic hat did you pull that one out of? Your description has nothing to do with what goes on at the track. No serious player bothers with show, rarely with place and then only as as a saver bet. The only ones bothering with the show pool are lunatics, old ladies, and scared money.
I never said they did. I was responding to a question about conditional probability by the OP. He wanted to know what trading and horse betting had in common and it was conditional odds. I used various examples to demonstrate how one could weigh the odds of the various combinations. NOT simply betting on a single horse to win.
whatever talk about a "photo finish" and "by a nose" what did that do to the exacta? nice photo there 777
Mav, I think you did say exactly this: Very few handicappers bet on horses to win. They bet on horses to place or show.
Yes. LOL. As it pertains to conditional probability. Read the posts before that. LOL. Conversations flow on a message board, posts are not written in isolation. If you know how to use conditional probability to calculate odds on a single horse, I'm all ears. Walk me through the math. But my post was in response to the other posters question. Start from the beginning of the thread.
That is simply inaccurate. In any given race any of the pools can give a small advantage over the other two as a function of the way the money comes in.