Can someone help me with this set up?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by James, Oct 30, 2010.

  1. James

    James

    This is for the e minis...tell me if this makes sense or is too risky/stupid. Any suggestions will be very helpful.

    I am 20yrs old.

    I have a 5,000 dollar account balance. I have a system that literally gives me a 90% chance of getting .5 pts (but only .5pts). I have back tested it for the past 6 months literally to get that statistic. I am seeking to get the bigger moves but the .5pts is to give me cushion. I use other highs for stops so they are roughly 1 point away. Does it make sense to trade 5 contracts, sell 3 of them when I get .5pts (for the cushion on the other 2 contracts) and keep the other 2 in for larger point moves? I have around a 10% chance of getting stopped out with a 1-1.5pt loss on ALL 5 contracts, a 90% chance of at least getting .5pts per contract.

    I was thinking of just scalping, but then I would miss larger moves and I would be risking 1-1.5 pts for ever .5 point. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense because god forbid it is only an 80% success rate, that would wipe out like 2-3pts if I did it ten times and I would make a net of like 2 points in the day with 10 trades. It just seems bleh. That is why I am trying to keep contracts in longer (like 2 contracts) but still scalp to cushion the larger potential for loss with keeping contracts in longer.

    Futures are much more complicated and tricky than stocks.
     
  2. Age is irrelevant.

    What was the size of the historical data file you used? Was that tick data?