I would say the portfolio of systems described in acrarys threads are pretty close to the holy grail in trading, considering he said they run in very liquid markets.
50% - costs. Why is it assumed that cutting your losses and letting winners run works? Do you think this works for casino games too? Really?
Itâs kind of simple. If you have an equal number of winners and losers. You make more with the winners than you lose with the losers. Shouldnât you make be making more money than you lose. It does for the casino. They donât win all the time but they play enough games that over the long haul they win. As for the players, poker and blackjack can both be profitable if you know what you are doing. You donât win all the time and can suffer severe drawdowns but you can exploit an edge if you have the discipline and the bankroll.
The Holy Grail is the ability to process data faster than your counterparty. This is the modern definition of that. Do you have 60K to spend? You may have a chance. But not guaranteed. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2968698#post2968698
Here is the holy grail If the instrument you are trading does not move as you expect it, get out immediate. It is better to exit early and reenter once proven right then to hold on and pray. This was the best tip I got from reading the Phantom of the Pits by Art Simpson.
You might find that the sum of the large number of small losers overwhelms the sum small of the small number of large winners. Pretty much any backtest of a moving average based strategy will show this same result.
If that happens, then you may not have an edge. It is much easier to overcome a small loss than a large loss. My experience has taught me to take many small profits (hit singles) instead of trying to hit a home run. Taking what the market gives me instead of what I think I can get was the turning point in my trading. Trading is very personal, so there are no right or wrong answers.
Honestly, you can forget what everyone has said on this thread. The holy grail is TIME AND REPETITION.