can someone give me the holy grail

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by vk60546, Nov 22, 2010.

  1. No it's all true.

    You must have faith in a higher power to arrange everything little "hint" or clue to come your way.

    However, you must prove yourself worthy of receiving such help beforehand.

    Perseverance is one such way to prove yourself worthy.
     
    #31     Dec 1, 2010
  2. Eddiefl

    Eddiefl


    such a schmuck answer. The op was genuine and sincere on his request for good information.

    And you come out with your little pink cartoon bs,

    EF
     
    #32     Dec 2, 2010
  3. jinxu

    jinxu

    gettinglucky,

    I do not see myself as being worthy. why do you think I was given the holy grail???
     
    #33     Dec 2, 2010
  4. Joe's post is true, not sarcasm.


     
    #34     Dec 2, 2010
  5. Eddiefl

    Eddiefl


    wow so mysterious, you have me at the edge of my seat.


    You should write a suspense novel.
     
    #35     Dec 2, 2010
  6. Jinxu,

    My system (meaning your system) has caused me to blow up my trading account several times over the course of a short time period.

    Therefore, I have _________________________.
     
    #36     Dec 2, 2010
  7. Here's a clue to finding the holy grail. Past performance IS predictive of future performance.
     
    #37     Dec 2, 2010
  8. or past performance is more likely to continue than not.

     
    #38     Dec 2, 2010
  9. There is no Holy Grail in trading.

    There must be "uncertainty" at all prices for there to be both buyers and sellers. (If there were a Holy Grail, it would eventually be learned by all... everybody would want to be on the winning side of the trade and nobody would want to be on the losing... therefore there would be no sellers to accommodate buyers or no buyers to accommodate sellers... no trade could get done.)
     
    #39     Dec 2, 2010
  10. I've come to the conclusion that almost any "edge" with a large number of opportunities and optimal money management simply has to be the Holy Grail people speak of because with those things all working for you, you quickly become so unimaginably large a trader that there really isn't any way you can trade even the most liquid market.

    At ~1 trade per day, ~60% winning trades, average winner ~1.4X average loser and average winner ~.6%, using the Kelly Criterion for your money management scheme, you could turn a few thousand into a bankroll so big you'd essentially size yourself out of the market within a year. I know because I've got an SPY strategy that churns out those numbers and I've run the returns on it using Kelly just for kicks and eventually you'd end up having to trade millions of shares of the SPY to size it correctly and you simply can't purchase millions of shares of the SPY at one price at one point in the day. From a practical perspective, there are limits to how "holy" the Holy Grail could be.

    Yet, if you told someone that the Holy Grail only required you to take 1 trade a day and that only 60% of those trades would be winners, they'd think you were crazy and that, certainly, having the Holy Grail must mean that every trade you take is a winning trade. Yeah, I guess if I had 100% winners, I'd reach the point where I couldn't trade at the price I want sooner than I would reach it at 60% winners, but in both cases, I reach a practical point of diminishing returns pretty quickly.

    Not that I don't want to reach that point, of course.
     
    #40     Dec 2, 2010