maximum profit per trade of all 'in profit' trades day 1 17, 34, 51, 26, 50, 12, 51, 12, 10, 15, 60, 10, 34, 62, 29 day 2 32, 80, 60, 48, 40, 32, 34, 8, 43, 25, 48, 30, 42, 9 day 3 87, 37, 89, 29, 30, 24, 41, 12, 94, 23 day 4 67, 21, 23, 13, 26, 24, 33, 98, 15 That's about it for 4 days. What should my target be? I've been wanting to catch over 60 per trade, however that might not be the best option or am I wrong? I've started thinking 30 might be better or similar, but not sure. Please respond what is the best profit target for me
you missed out on quite a few vital information. So I don't think anyone can answer your question directly. anyway, let's say you are day trading Emini with 3 lots. 1st lot - you target a reward risk ratio of 3. last 3rd lot - you hold on for many many hours to stretch the target profit. 2nd lot - target RR somewhere in between The next question will be where to place your STOPS.
I only use 1 contract (currently) and I know what stop loss to use Why can't you calculate the optimal target? I would like to know.. So forget about partials, I don't do partials
It is very important to know that we don't know whether the price will move in our favor or not. And if the price move in our favor, we don't know how far the price will go. So your trade plan must factor in these important points.
well you can see the different price targets that it could have hit on all these trades, isn't there a way to say what the optimal target is for all those possibilities if they keep repeating quite similarly? If you had to set a target for those, what would it be, that's my question.. Is it 15, 25, 35 or 65 etc?
You need larger sample size of like a 1000, 4 days don't cut it. I use MFE and MAE and capture 80% so they more makeable. Maximum adverse excursion and maximum favorable excursion explained (tradingdiarypro.com)
Yes yes I am gathering more, good idea. However if you multiplied the sample by 100 and pretended you had all the data that kept repeating like this, what's the optimal target?
For maximal profit and assuming a losing trade loses various proportions of the profit target with that data, a simple simulation is: Code: perl -e 'use warnings; use strict; my @v = qw/ 17 34 51 26 50 12 51 12 10 15 60 10 34 62 29 32 80 60 48 40 32 34 8 43 25 48 30 42 9 87 37 89 29 30 24 41 12 94 23 67 21 23 13 26 24 33 98 15/; @v = sort { return $a <=> $b; } @v; my $vsz = scalar(@v); my $min = $v[0]; my $max = $v[$vsz-1]; for (my $lossprop = 0; $lossprop <= 4.01; $lossprop += 0.1) { my $optv; my $maxp = -999999999; my $winPct; for (my $i = $min; $i <= $max; ++$i) { my $loss = $i * $lossprop; my $thisp = 0; my $numWins = 0; for my $maxup (@v) { if ($maxup >= $i) { $thisp += $i; ++$numWins; } else { $thisp -= $loss; } } if ( $thisp > $maxp ) { $optv = $i; $maxp = $thisp; $winPct = $numWins / $vsz * 100; } } print "lossAsPercentOfTarget ${\($lossprop * 100)} target $optv total $maxp mean ${\($maxp / $vsz)} winPercent $winPct\n"; } ' The results are Code: lossAsPercentOfTarget 0 target 29 total 841 mean 17.5208333333333 winPercent 60.4166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 10 target 23 total 800.4 mean 16.675 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 20 target 23 total 772.8 mean 16.1 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 30 target 23 total 745.2 mean 15.525 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 40 target 23 total 717.6 mean 14.95 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 50 target 23 total 690 mean 14.375 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 60 target 23 total 662.4 mean 13.8 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 70 target 23 total 634.8 mean 13.225 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 80 target 23 total 607.2 mean 12.65 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 90 target 23 total 579.6 mean 12.075 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 100 target 23 total 552 mean 11.5 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 110 target 23 total 524.4 mean 10.925 winPercent 75 lossAsPercentOfTarget 120 target 21 total 499.8 mean 10.4125 winPercent 77.0833333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 130 target 21 total 476.7 mean 9.93125 winPercent 77.0833333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 140 target 12 total 460.8 mean 9.6 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 150 target 12 total 456 mean 9.5 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 160 target 12 total 451.2 mean 9.4 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 170 target 12 total 446.4 mean 9.3 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 180 target 12 total 441.6 mean 9.2 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 190 target 12 total 436.8 mean 9.1 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 200 target 12 total 432 mean 9 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 210 target 12 total 427.2 mean 8.9 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 220 target 12 total 422.4 mean 8.8 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 230 target 12 total 417.6 mean 8.7 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 240 target 12 total 412.8 mean 8.6 winPercent 91.6666666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 250 target 10 total 410 mean 8.54166666666667 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 260 target 10 total 408 mean 8.5 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 270 target 10 total 406 mean 8.45833333333333 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 280 target 10 total 404 mean 8.41666666666667 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 290 target 10 total 402 mean 8.375 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 300 target 10 total 400 mean 8.33333333333333 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 310 target 10 total 398 mean 8.29166666666667 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 320 target 10 total 396 mean 8.25 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 330 target 10 total 394 mean 8.20833333333333 winPercent 95.8333333333333 lossAsPercentOfTarget 340 target 9 total 392.4 mean 8.175 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 350 target 9 total 391.5 mean 8.15625 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 360 target 9 total 390.6 mean 8.1375 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 370 target 9 total 389.7 mean 8.11875 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 380 target 9 total 388.8 mean 8.1 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 390 target 9 total 387.9 mean 8.08125 winPercent 97.9166666666667 lossAsPercentOfTarget 400 target 9 total 387 mean 8.0625 winPercent 97.9166666666667 For example, if you assume a 100% loss of the target when the trade does not hit the target, the target for maximum profit is 23 with total profit 552, mean profit 11.5, and 75% of the trades would have reached the target.
Thank you phil. This is a very nice math you performed. Can you please explain what type of math and software you used to perform this analysis please? Thank you,