The market is pricing the SRS after today's massacre at 30.87. I have to respect that, but what the f*ck? Tell me why I am wrong, please. This has to be the short squeeze of a lifetime, I mean this is an all time low for the SRS. Any thoughts?
Head and Shoulder's breakdown on weekly charts, you will be killed and granuled into the soil without any trace.
Amen. A buddy was thinking about putting on a put credit spread in the 80-85 strike area on SKF a few weeks ago when it was around $110 thinking that 90 was "about as low as it could go" before expiration. I managed to talk him out of it by explaining why S/R are meaningless on these instruments. He thanks me daily
Be careful with these levered ETFs. Its probably a better trade to go short the SRS and short SPG. Goldman putting a conviction buy on SPG is one of the funniest things I have seen (and thats saying alot in this environment). A friend of mine called his buddy on the GS CRE desk and told him about it this morning. He said the guy laughed for 30 seconds before he convinced him he was serious and he looked for himself. What does that tell you about the free reign these guys have right now. The CRE desk has SPG deals they cant move and yet the analyst are making it a conviction buy after the firm is lead on a secondary offering. LOL. It is unbelieveable.
I've bought and sold SRS a number of times over the past few weeks. I've made money almost each time (keyword almost)...either way I'm net positive in it. Each time I've been looking for a much larger multi-day move but there is a huge, undeniable bid in the REITs. So instead of holding it overnight, it has been mostly an intraday trade. It seems like there is a secondary every day from the REIT of the day and someone is buying it all up. I would be careful if I were going long SRS if I were you. I've been looking for a reversal in SPG, VNO, IYR, SRS, FRT and BXP as well....still looking. Good luck. Hopefully you know what you're doing. Have you considered an IYR short as opposed to an SRS long?
I sometimes wonder exactly how dumb some of you are. I think, they can't get any dumber. But you do. I was going to tell you why, but I've decided not to.
SRS has been tanking because of rumors that the government is going to announce that CMBS' are part of the TARP. Do you really want to trade against the unlimited funds of the US government?
I agree, S and R are totally meaningless on these instruments... just take a look at the FAZ. But, w.r.t. the OP, go and draw yourself a weekly chart of the SPY or ES. Take a look at where the upper trend line sits. B p.s. Playing the probabilities alone, there has been ONE period in the last 10 years (in the ES) where we had 7 or more positive weekly closes in a row... this last stretch is number two.