Actually an overseas payment with RMB would be in offshore RMB, or CNH, which is freely tradable. Afaik, AML issues asides, you could receive the 21million USD equivalent in CNH in a HK or Taiwan bank account and use them to buy the Manhattan condo and italian marble after chaging it into relevant currencies. Some Bahamas banks might as well have CNH accounts, not sure, even IB offers CNH. Once you talk about onshore RMB or CNY it is a whole other issue. Not talking from experience, I do have some CNH accounts open but never used them.
Without us, China will just have a bunch of empty factories. Not that they don't already have alot... One point I don't understand is why they have so much dollar reserves? That's a contradiction to what previous guy was saying - they are running out of US reserves? I know they sell their Yuen to get dollars so they can keep their currency pegged but is it really pegged? Isn't the Yuen floating? I see on google a USD/RMB trading at 6.82. Is the Chinese Central bank artifically pegging this themselves by selling their Yuen whenever it goes above a certian level?
Some of your points are so horrifically WRONG. The Fed is never capable of " buying 1T and rolling it over and letting it mature". What kind of nonsense are you talking about. Have you ever worked in financial markets in fixed income? What you are claiming equates to money printing until the paper matures, simple as that. You conveniently omitted the complete loss of trust in the US Federal reserve system by the rest of the world, in the event of the Fed taking on such transaction. 1T is not a few BILs. Drug cartels don't want dollars, lol. They want to launder illicit income into properties and investments. It's just that this is very hard and nearly impossible to do in very large sums and hence they still end up with tons of cash USD. But they would happily eliminate all your life long enemies if you brought them the idea how to get all that illicit usd income into a nice diversified UBS account Also, no Chinese military asks for IP transfers nor accepts blueprints. That would be a different Chinese government entity, and there are no IP transfers in special economic zones where foreign entities can manufacture but have to exclusively export. And its hilarious how you seem to always know someone (preferably a sister or relative) who coincidently seems to work in the area related to the discussion, quite some probabilities we got there and a very large family You seem to have educated points on some issues but it looks like you go absolutely bonkers when you see your US centric world view is challenged.
Not yet but possibly soon, nothing speaks against that. Very large amounts of crude transactions (though still a fraction percentage wise) in the middle East and Asia are transacted in non USD ccys already. Why partners around the globe stuck with the USD so long was because they perceived the US as being a partner. Let politics run its course a little further in the US and you will have many more countries writing off the US as a sinking empire and seeking diversification via other alliances. You can't have the cake and eat it too. Trade and security and financial flow is a two way street in geo politics. That applies equally to China as the US.
Very strong (and wrong) statement given that Europe is a larger trading partner with China than the US is. Also China is nowhere close to running out of USD reserves. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves Don't believe anyone (including me) , look at the facts and let that guide you. There are too many idiots around or those with a very tilted understanding of global economics, particularly of China. I strongly recommend not getting your learning on China from uninformed sources, particularly not by those who seem to display an unhealthy dose of American patriotism.
Many countries ignore licencing agreements- such as for film and music. Turkey I recall was one of the main perpetrators but you can probably include most of the middle east, Africa, Russia, well basically everywhere outside the EU and USA.The world is not a level playing field- even if you are a flat earther
Empires are destroyed .... from within. All the while being paranoid and preoccupied with what other up and coming rivals are doing.
Going by your numbers - Europe being china's biggest partner. It'd still hurt them regardless if they stop manufactoring for US alone. We have a 419bn trade def with China, so take that out of the equation if they decide to adhere to harsh policies, they would have a lot of empty factories. More then 1/5 of exports will be gone so I don't think I'll be "Wrong" if it'll cripple their economy without a crash course in marco economics. The US has other cheap alternatives to manurfactor goods. It'll only hurt us because China just happens to be the cheapest. America is the consumer, without this consumption, China is just supply without demand. Or do you think they can really shift over to a domestic demand for all their goods? And that is assuming Europe doesn't follow our footsteps. Europe is made up of many countries - just cause they are in a union doesn't mean UK would consume more then Germany. etc. etc. You're comparing a union of countries to a just America, why didn't you include Canada and Mexico? With all that being said - why do you think EUROPE is their bigget export partner? http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/ Yes, I know what you may say worldstopexports.com may not be a reliable source, where are they getting these figures from? Maybe the person who wrote this article is an idiot. But that just puts us back in square one? If you think this article has some relavence then the EU (Germany, UK, Netherlands) makes up less then 10% of their exports. They didn't include other EU countries like France or Spain on there but do you think they would ramp those exports more then 20%? My have my own "conspiracy" theory for the market tanking late 2018 could be the big money getting out of China exposed investments. Is it that crazy to think the smart money knows this Tarriff war isn't ending anytime soon and they would be looking to invest in vehicles that doesn't have to deal with this non-sense? And I do have a cynical lense when getting information from sources with American patriotism.