Appears not many have a functional understanding of probabilities – as they relate to the mkt Small wonder uncertainty.., independent…, and unique can be a bitch to grasp / operate in Yippee ki-yay RN
May-be you could contact Tom Gastaldi, the author of GBOT ... it is my (possibly erroneous) understanding that this trading system uses some randomness in it. His current journal is here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=279057
Probabilities can be so tiresome and technical analysis can be such hard work. Fundamental analysis can be fundamentally flawed and long standing inter-relationships tend to switch in and out with no discernible rhyme nor reason - nor warning. Let’s try random – again. There isn’t anything to sensibly recommend random entry, but I’ve not read anything genuinely empirical which absolutely disproves it as a viable method either. The thing is, you don’t have to go the whole hog and randomize every element of the trade: The instrument, the entry time and size and the exit. You only have to look at the slope of the price, [if there is a slope : a useful primary filter if ever there was one] and deduce the very high probability that if the last bar was up (in an up sloping trend) the next bar will be too. And so on until the next one wasn’t where you exit. While not truly random, it’s not a million miles from where those who do not make too much of a fuss about making money on outright directional trades ply their skills. You can always pretend it’s random and your deep disquiet at knowing the awful truth that it isn’t will be somewhat modified by the financial rewards from your illicit knowledge.