I did say in one of the past posts that I sell likely resistance and buy support levels. But hey, you don't have to credit me with any call validity. I don't have anything to sell
You are posting multiple charts in this thread - so one can only assume you're trying to demonstrate something. My reply to that is that charts are easily annotated after the fact. Trading them in real time at the right edge of the chart while risking $$$ is very different.
Finding a subset of trades that can give you an asymmetrical payoff is an edge. Ex-ante you do not know what your return will be. What creates a positive expectation of a return is your edge. Medallion Fund and other HFTs are low edge (51-52%) but high volume and tight risk limits. The greater the edge the higher your risk limit. As a trader you will have an "average edge" though per trade your edge may be higher or lower. Having been a trader on both the buy side and sell side, I can tell you that risk departments allocate capital using gambling theory (Kelly criteria and monte carlo simulation), which all use edge as an input.
I have no idea. Whatever is meant to be, will be, we can only be either on the right side or the wrong side. I just know if I'm wrong, then I'm out! If it looks like I'm right ill hold on till next barrier.
Not quite sure what you're trying to communicate here to be honest, but thanks anyway. Great trend day UP with the R/R greatly skewed to the long side. Generally, the probability of the indices (ES) tanking on any given day are very low. Given today's Open - even lower.
What I’m saying is that all of the trades you make are actually 1:1. That you arbitrarily set an expected return that is greater than your expected loss is not a real measure of the risk/reward in a trade lol.