can price action predict market moves

Discussion in 'Trading' started by geth03, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. No, and if you believe this, I hope you don't trade CL. The cartel controls oil. OPEC plus Russia.
     
    #391     Apr 11, 2021
  2. Inverted H&S Russell, uptrend, breakout is near
     
    #392     Apr 15, 2021
  3. Relentless

    Relentless

    Id say that's more of a double bottom but you'll need to clear the highs to confirm. Head didnt clear left shoulder low.
     
    #393     Apr 15, 2021
  4. And that illustrates in a nutshell the perils and subjective nature of chart patterns. You'll have have the same chart, but multiple interpretations of it depending on who you ask. Hell, even the same person may 'see' something one day he doesn't see the next day. :)
     
    #394     Apr 15, 2021
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  5. Nothing in life is perfect. Accept it & manage risk.
     
    #395     Apr 15, 2021
    oraclewizard77 and Laissez Faire like this.
  6. Relentless

    Relentless

    It's just good to be aware of them. They definitely aren't holy grails by any means.

    Typically I'm more interested in finding profitable repeat patterns that aren't copy and pasted all over every educational retail source.
    They are what really puts the bread on the table.
     
    #396     Apr 15, 2021
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  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Agree, though it is hedge not edge.
     
    #397     Apr 15, 2021
  8. Isn’t all subjective? Everything? There no such thing as mathematical perfection in the markets. Nothing and no system can be 100% objective. Nothing. Even Simmons doesn’t have that much of a high win rate. They are only right about 51% of the time. Computers are “human too”. LOL And TO THINK, he hires, or did hire, the brightest and the best. His computers screw up reading patterns and calculations almost as much as they are successful. NOTHING IS SO SO SO OBJECTIVE about the markets and to think we are, or IT is, then we are deceiving ourselves.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2021
    #398     Apr 15, 2021
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  9. themickey

    themickey

    Yes and no.
    Some chartists are dogmatic about using indicators which imo are 95% waste of time.
    But then, take copper as an example, we know more EV's are coming, copper would be a reasonable safe bet atm.
     
    #399     Apr 15, 2021
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. Managing risk while important will only make you lose money at a slower rate. The most important thing is to make a profit. Consistently. :)

    I'll give you two sample systems that are 100 % objective:

    1) 10/20 EMA. Buy/sell on a cross.

    2) Opening range breakout: Go long/short on a breakout of the opening range. We can define the OR as the 30-minute maximum/minimum.

    While these systems won't consistently deliver good results there is no interpretation or subjectiveness. You have clearly defined rules which tells you (or better; an algorithm) what to do and it will be the same action always. Both in real time and back-testing and for different users.

    Note: I didn't say that chart patterns don't work. I'll leave that for others who use them to decide. I just said that the two posts above the one I posted highlighted the perils and subjective nature of a chart based approach.

    That's all.

    And how you want to interpret that is up to you. LOL. :)
     
    #400     Apr 15, 2021