It goes back to I think it was Mark Douglas who said you don't have to know what's going to happen next to make money. And that's why we are trading, to make money. Every one of my systems has a probability that I'll make money if I take enough trades. I have no idea what the next trade will do. Just like the casino doesn't know which customer will hit the jackpot, it only knows that over the long run it has an edge and will make money. I'll agree that I predict the system will make money. But the next trade is a coin flip at best.
Keep sayin' dat until da cows come home but ya don't convince me one iota. Predicting and reacting are two different kettles of fish. What's gonna happen here? These guys gonna predict or react when this little fella comes out?
Correct. The question was can p/a predict market moves. Reacting isn't predicting. I predict YM may decline after failure to break through resistance and head towards the green line (blue being stop). If I jump in once the move has started, that would be reacting.
If you have NO IDEA what the next trade will likely do then you have no edge. And in fact don’t need an edge or even a system. Just throw some money at any trade...any time...as you can never know as you have no idea what the next trade will do. Any prediction worth it’s salt has to based upon upon observation of previous similar events or circumstances. The weatherman predicts rain based upon present conditions that are similar to previous conditions that produced rain. PREDICTION IS NOT A FORBIDDEN WORD NOR A NASTY DIRTY WORD. WHY DO TRADERS HATE IT? BECAUSE THE LOSING GURUS TEACH THEM TO! Look at my chart in the fictional story above. I post it here again. I predict a second leg up after that BO and thus I will take a long position at the close of that bar, if not before. Why? Because past observations have shown me that that is what will likely happen. So I DO have an idea of that trade likely working out. I would never fade that move. If anything I would go with it add (even average down in the event of a PB another shh..shh another no no in guru world..whisper) adding to it because experience indicates that there will likely be a second leg at least enough for a good scalp. And it also is likely the next bar will be a bull bar. That is not an exhaustion move because there was nothing to exhaust. No previous PA to exhaust. It is BO and a big one! It is by far the biggest bar and breaking out WAY above the last 88 bars. There is an 90% chance that price will continue up over the next 3 bars before any decent PB ...which will just be profit-taking when a PB does occur ....then a resumption(and likely the very next bar will be a bull bar) far enough to make a good scalpers profit of several points before it would reverse and plunge back down to the MA. So based upon that action and those factors yes I will predict a second leg up as I have AN IDEA and a credible one that there will be a second leg up. 10% chance that my prediction will be wrong so I put a SL at the bottom of that BO bar. To look at that and say “oh gee I have no idea what will happen next. I just gonna throw some money at it...think I will short.... or go long?....doesn’t matter cause gee I have no idea...think I will drop a leaf in my tea if it rotates right I will go long. It it rotates left I will short. It it does nothing I will do nothing.” Just the fact that a trader takes a position he is making a prediction otherwise he is a fool. Now whether his prediction is a sound prediction is dependent upon the basis of his prediction. Yes we traders predict. Forecast. Prognosticate. Whether we own up to it or not. We are not taking a bet just for the hell of it, just to be betting.
I will make a prediction based upon that alligator or crocodile picture. That animal IS GONNA RUN OUT OF THAT BOX AND IF HE CAN TAKE SOMEONES LEG WITH HIM HE IS GONNA DO JUST THAT GRABBING HIMSELF A SNACK, OTHERWISE HE IS HEADING FOR THE WATER. The body language of the humans portrays they believe my prediction is correct. I will make a second prediction based upon sound animal behavior. That beast is NOT gonna lay in that box for 2 weeks!
I think I have said enough here. If a trader doesn’t believe they are participating in prediction ...forecasting...prognosticating well I supposed that is that. But it is their erroneous belief. They are free to believe it. But it is a WRONG belief. The better that traders get at predicting the more money they will make and the less they will lose. The biggest error traders make is leaving out a probability factor in their trading. They will figure R:R down to the penny. They will be meticulous in their setups. They will be (if they can) robotic in their entries and exits. But they leave out the probability of a trade hitting their PT or at min giving them SOME profit before it would hit their SL. This failure likely stems from a deep seated belief the gurus have drilled into our brains to not predict and worse don’t even CONSIDER predicting. Each trade is a unit in itself. I will predict...then enter and will keep predicting ...until I exit I have said my bit here so I will slide away.......
This debate again? When you react, is your reaction a long, short, neutral, or random reaction? Only a random reaction involves no predicting. If your reaction is long, WHY? Because you expect the market to go down that particular trade? No, Because you expect the market to go up that particular trade? No. You expect / forecast / predict / figure / guess / whatever-verb-you-prefer that over many trades, taking the long trade will be more profitable than going short, with a particular signal/setup. So, this debate rages on because of semantics: No, we aren't predicting the next trade. Yes, we are predicting the expectancy of taking a particular position, during a particular signal/setup, over many trades. This is nothing new. Weather forecasters (predictors) do it--they talk in probabilities based on long-term expectations. The Electron Cloud Model does it: https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron_cloud "...The electron cloud model says that we cannot know exactly where an electron is at any given time, but the electrons are more likely to be in specific areas. ..." Fallacy: I'm not predicting it'll rain tomorrow; I'm just reacting to what the weatherman said by taking an umbrella with me. Logic: I'm not predicting it'll rain tomorrow; I take an umbrella with me all the time. Logic: I'm not predicting it'll rain tomorrow; I flip a coin to determine whether to take an umbrella.