can price action predict market moves

Discussion in 'Trading' started by geth03, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. I just watched a clip of his...geez :vomit:

    Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place.

    so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example:
    Local high/(low) (last 20 bars)
    If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell)
    Exit after 5 bars

    Run this for as big of a time series you can get and you should be able to backtest the result. That is proof that a return exists in the trade. Your live trading is proof of execution. Make sense?
     
    #281     Mar 31, 2021
    stockpredictor likes this.
  2. I see. I'll have to build up the account and work with a computer guy to get to that point.
     
    #282     Apr 1, 2021
  3. themickey

    themickey

    That formula will produce random results.
    It's similar to an indicator, just because it's a formula, that doesn't in itself create trading logic.
    The world / trading / history doesn't operate off a repetitive formula
     
    #283     Apr 1, 2021
  4. geth03

    geth03

    there is a review on https://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/al-brooks-trading/
    about Al Brooks. he is interpreting every bar on a 5 min chart in relations to previous bars and chart patterns these form on an intraday basis.
    he wrote a few books on that matter:
    https://www.amazon.de/Al-Brooks/e/B001JSEI4Q?ref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share

    this guy can tell you how you need to trade trends, reversal and trading ranges.
    he wrote one book for every environment, at least 500 pages long for each!!!

    this is the stuff he is talking about in his tradingroom:

    "Indecision bars, indecision bars, with a possible micro bubble climax definitely looking to buy support. But sellers may overwhelm swing, so looking to sell at resistence trigger”

    “Double bottom probably buyers on doji candle looking for long entry and short entry on resistence failure short entry for quick profit, be aggressive and careful with either position”

    “Final flag, final flag, definitely final flag probably entering trading range with close support at possible entry point for aggresive buyers and definite exit point on multi-point sell position”

    “Failure reversal bull flag with sellers climax possible sell, but looking to buy on minor pullback of micro bubble. Indecision bars signalling continuation of reversal points.”

    i don't fucking know what the guy is talking about, i think he even does not know what he is talking about. "doji, last flag bull bear reversal pattern with possible breakout and one leg pull back to another support area, looking to buy on second indecision bar with strong momentum. but sellers can overwhelm, so no reason to be aggressive, careful with positioning." what the fuck is this?
    imagine working at Goldman and everybody is talking that way.
    how can anybody be serious with this guy? there is a cult around this guy.
    i don't get it.
     
    #284     Apr 1, 2021
  5. themickey

    themickey

    If you use words which can be interpreted numerous ways (think Bible or Trump) then you will have a cult following.
     
    #285     Apr 1, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  6. For pure chart reading - one signal I find valuable is the false breakout. This can be both macro and micro. Generally, it does not require interpretation (this is where you need to define some rigid rules for how to use this).

    Combined with other filters this can usually give good entries.

    I see a lot of discussion about why on this thread which I don't think generally matters. But if one were to explain the why of a FBO it makes perfect sense as trapped traders will need to liquidate their positions adding fuel to the fire in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout.

    This is for ES. Other instruments have other characteristics and the FBO may be less reliable.

    upload_2021-4-1_13-47-36.png

    EDIT: I don't use a naked chart, so I had to deliberately remove some of the indicators I use.
     
    #286     Apr 1, 2021
    Poljot, comagnum and stockpredictor like this.
  7. That’s ultimately my point. And it’s why there’s ultimately no signal in a chart pattern.
     
    #287     Apr 1, 2021
    DiceAreCast likes this.
  8. Stacked levels, simultaneous hits of levels on correlated vehicles; those two methods are strong.
     
    #288     Apr 1, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  9. And as expected, a gap above the TSLA level produced a retest the next day.
     
    #289     Apr 1, 2021
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    #290     Apr 1, 2021