============== trading blue; True that can be a bit of an annoyance, taking out our stops then reversing; but its about probabilities. October has been a bit wilder on downside than normal; but mainly if 10% average daily range/stoploss bothers you , surely wouldnt trade that stock myself. Thats too big for me =================================== 10% is a big stop loss for NYSE swingtrade; most all of mine dont have that big average range 120% year stock gain is amoung the best; or closer to 10% month. 10% average daily is pretty fierce gain or fierce loss On a stock you know real well, plenty of due dilligence, plenty of data studied ; end of day [eod]check usually is fine.
Your stop appears on institutional screens as a big red dot with "come and get me sucka " written underneath. On a more serious note, stops are placed at obvious levels and if you enter at breakout or S/R then that is an obvious place for the market to be pushed back to. In thin markets your stop should be at leat two obvious levels away, the first is almost always retested. Also if you were running stops you might think about risk vs reward i.e you get 65% of the stops if you push it 2 standard deviations, 95% if you push it 2 but to get 99% you have to push it 3 SD so the risk vs incremental reward does not really favour this unless you KNOW something, and often it seems 'they' do. Worst place is mid range ie take a lot of small stops and reenter or take the occasional big one, but NOT lots of medium sized ones e.g 50 points in HSI is the worst location. Also use the stoprunners strategy in your favour, i.e fade entry ate the extremes they create.
================ a]And more than a few profitable trader/investors use end of day[eod] price ; they cant see a mental stop written in my notebook z] Mainly do huge amount of research, better too much due diligence than not enough; had a tek stock with average vol=33.3million plus, average daily range about 5%, it dipped down 15% one day, still uptrending. z-again]Now while i have seen better tek uptrends,panic sellers really didnt take it down much @eod; not suggesting a stop of 15%, but have over 7 years of data on that one stock in my heart. Trend =friend, your lunch breaks may hep, but not as much at end of day price , dont have to watch screen intraday for profitable position/swing trade. z-again]Besides all that that tek stock still above its 50 /200 day moving averages; investors.com noted for years thats bullish. Master Swing Trader Book by Alan Farley noted , Bulls live above 200 dma; bears live below 200dma. Wisdom is profitable to direct
There are some stocks that take out the stops on an almost daily basis. I do not know what stock you are referring too, maybe post that. If you are trading a thinly traded stock, the MM's or Specialist know where they are and will take them out if they can. My suggestion too you is if you can not sit and do mental stops, and the stock typically does this, then maybe find another stock to trade. Some NYSE specialists are brutal at doing this, they can, they will, they make money. Oh and if this is a trend, why not join them
If you have a good software, they will not see your stops. For example I use the DAS Trader Pro software and all the stops are server held, so nobody sees it until its ready to be executed.
Use price alert. So you can monitor the price action when it is close to the price level(s) you are concerned with. If you do not want to use hard stops, thats probably the only way.
Possible alternatives: 1. Choose your stocks based on money managment-centered criteria. Write a scan or a macro which measures the daily standard deviation as a percentage of the stock. Write another which measures the average weekly and monthly range. Divide the two to get a risk/reward ratio. Stick only to high risk/reward ratios and widen your stops. Even then, enter only on dips with extreme 5ma/20ma differential to maximize this ratio. 2. Read "McMillan on Options" and get around this madness altogether by selling expensive delta-neutral option spreads or buying cheap straddles. 3. Portfolio management: Place several well diversified trades with small positions (<5% of trading capital). Calculate or estimate the daily standard deviation of the portfolio and hedge the portfolio dips with an offsetting instrument, such an ETF or index future. This way you don't have to use stops, i.e. a 50% loss of any one position computes to 2.5% of capital, a value of an acceptable stop loss. 4. Don't chase stocks, ever. Wait until it pulls back on 50% lower volume and resumes a volume-supported uptrend and 5ma turnaround for at least 1.5 days. 5. Quit killing your edge with lazy computer-backtesting. Before you use any system, make sure you print out 100 charts and visually study them for 2 weeks. This will not only refine your system but will allow you to continually refine it as market conditions change. Perry Kaufman's "New Trading Systems" , 4th Ed, has an excellent, comprehensive study on stops. The whole book (over 1000pgs) is an encyclopedia of trading wisdom as well and a great reference guide. Also "Statistics for Dummies" is great if you're weak in this area.
Trailing stops are not held in the market, and you can structure them to act as an initial stop loss, with added benefit of moving up (down) with the market.
Thanks everyone for the words of wisdom and pointers. btw, check todays jubak's journal http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P133282.asp#msnhp Good to see that even pros are getting conned. He describes the same problem that I faced last few months.