Can one successfully trade with Random Walk Theory?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Rocko Bonaparte, Jan 18, 2010.

  1. I see threads straying sometimes into discussions of Random Walk Theory. Then I saw in the linear regression maestro talking about working in a fund, trading, with that in mind. Generally I am surprised with how many people on here subscribe to it and still talking about trading. So I wondered if there's more to it.

    From my limited, feeble perspective, it seems like the people espousing that the markets are random are spitting out a lot of angst. When they get into the "all markets are random. The only thing that's certain is you will lose your money," I think of goth teenagers with white makeup, all dressed in black, talking about how everything is meaningless.

    However, if people have this idea in mind and yet continue to trade, I have to imagine my idea of what Random Walk Theory is has to be immature. Despite this, the basic explanation of it I glean from everywhere peg it as an idea that it's all completely random. Is that necessarily true? Is that what these people believe? Then what is it that compels them to trade?

    I post this in a fresh thread in hopes I don't derail another. That and I imagine there's something more to it and that I don't really understand it. So I don't mean to insult anybody by trying to claim they're a bunch of angsty teenagers. But that would be amusing if it were true. :D
  2. bigb


    nothing random these days with the fed buy buy to support their insanely leveraged position
  3. I have no proof, but wouldn't that add fuel to the impending implosion argument?
  4. How can you trade successfully based upon something that is false?
  5. nuff said

    markets are not random but they're not predictable either.

    finding an edge is difficult but feasible.

    you have to look elsewhere though.