Can I Get A TurnAround?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Oct 22, 2007.

  1. Good morning stocksters. Often I get mixed signals in my head- that shouldn't surprise you. The current cross up has to do with the overwhelming breadth of Friday's sell off triggering one of my buy metrics.... vs the fact that it was options expiration and several Quant funds that normally would have been buying were absent from the game...

    Tomorrow we could have a real flush based on the consumer if Amax says something about non preforming loans. I should know I am one of them!!! >There comes a point where it's more important to buy my maple syrup than accumulate your bonus points and yes I'm about two weeks late.... X that by all of America and they could say something scary. I hope not. Retail stocks have already given back everything they made from the run up.... and I think it's time to buy some.

    Global growth related stocks steel, etc are sure to take it on the chin today. Consumer stocks tomorrow... then what? Tech? Nothing Apple could say I wouldn't think, MSFT?... is the market about out of ideas to sell?

    What stands out? Biotech. Let's get to work on this sector today. Usually a bastion of risk biotech has held up better than any other sector because of the M&A on the way... ONXX? This will be my mandate today come up with the name Pfhizer is about to buy- VRTX? MLNM? ARNA? SGMO? ISIS?

    Total breadth Friday was -4266, a wipeout day. Total volume was heavy with expiration and it was all to the downside. Relative buying pressure was just 9.1%, which is remarkably low. Short term cycle work calls for a ST bottom here and a rally within 1 to 3 days and then perhaps for more pain until early Dec.

    The one thing we cannot count on is Short's covering to drive this back up- for far too many were and are long for that to help us now.... ~ stoney
  2. Well I went with REGN @ $20.50. Done.

    Basically I've been following a couple and this one has Zacks earnings beat prediction from their analyst so at least I have some sturdiness behind the name. Not comfortable going to far off the beaten path here--
    Regeneron is the play.

    Is the market bouncing a little quick here? perhaps.
    Tough to get a feel today, but how would you like to be trading in India?

    The Sensex index opened with a huge negative gap of 300 points at 17,260, and dropped to a low of 17,171 in early trades. Buying at lower levels saw the index recoup all the losses, and zoom to a high of 17,705 -an intra-day gain of over 500 points!! After exhibiting extreme volatility in late noon deals, the Sensex finally closed with a gain of 54 points at 17,614. Wow. ~ SI
  3. 2nd Bio Bought: Sequanome. Very powerful looking chart to me. Downs syndrome in vitro test on the way.

    Currently 12% cash, after this week, it will be closer to 10% and we will endeavor to hold the line there at that amount until 3/4 of the way through Nov. ~ stoney
  4. Well here we are and it's always so much harder to do it than talk about. But we are going to trigger a second puke buy signal or rare buy signal today and I fully expect to rally into end of week!

    There I said it- now what am I going to do about it? Nothing. I'm frozen in fear. Just like the debt market.

    We all knew what was coming today, all of us except the pro's I guess... but What was said today at Merryl's call was that things got much worse in Sept; so yes we are in the same state as before! Of course this puts the Fed in play so as much as I hate being Mr Loser... this bad news is good news for rate cuts.

    The other players GS and Morgan have different qtr reporting times they have yet to report numbers that would include Sept so they may have to guide down-- that would be a buy point for them most likely, whenever it happens.

    Some random interesting stuff-

    Western Union. When a stock reports minus 16% income and it gaps way up and then holds it in this market today... it simply must be researched. So I will spend my day doing that. WU has always been a send home money to Mexico story. And with housing hurt and economy slowing down.... how can that be a good place to be? Buying back stock and making acquisitions I'm sure is in the mix. More on these guys later.

    HOKU's chart is beckoning me like the nymph's song of failure... whatever that means- Can't help it.

    Is there a play in these mortgage companies?
    The two I have in mind are NLY & ANH...

    Another stock that is intriguing here is Koppers Hldgs- KOP.

    As popular tech plays like ANAD get grounded and pounded I wonder if it isn't time to shop around the garbage bin... buy stocks so bad they can't go lower-- two that come to mind are TER & RMBS... ~ stoney
  5. I am not sure I follow you. Are you saying that you defaulted on your mortgage, and yet you are trading stocks? This is just insane, my friend.
  6. American Express issues credit cards. they are usually Green. Mine is. Some are other colors.
    You buy stuff and then promise to pay it back at end of month. They give you points to help prompt you to pay early. My monthly bill was $9K! Thanks to me dearest wife and the point was- for me I'm going to stretch out this payment and mail it at end of month instead of the 17th which is my due date. So YES I am a bad loan for 15 days!!!! ~ stoney
  7. That was most likely the short term low folks!

    Right as I was talking to you!

    11:22:03 >Comment DJI -200 & falling!NDX -61!

    *Alan G now says HOUSING PRICES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY changing his tune... this was all previewed by those weird Paulson comments on housing last week... This may hamper the snap back as it is new news...

    In short. this Market sucks~ stoney
  8. As the day lingers I am honing in more and more on Varian med. VAR> They report tonight and I see an up day tomorrow for the market, so if I could get a good earnings beat we could have a story here. Competition has hurt this once great growth stock. But they still are the big Gorilla in cancer zapping with a huge market share. They have some overseas sales too and they could guide up for the future based on delayed orders from these HMO's & hospitals which all merged. These are big ticket items and hospital buying has been according to the CEO pushed back not canceled... somewhat risky but stoney lives for Beta. This stock needs to make a last stand here and I think they will. This is a quality name in the health field that has not run like the others. Just make their number or beat by a cent beatslightly on sales and talk up their next qtr like crazy... that is my recipe for wealth in this name...

    Inches away from buying...
  9. Read the transcript of WU's call on seeking alpha. Hot Damn!

    It's a foot back into a sector I am going to have to eventually rebuild in these portfolios... it's got no mortgage issues... I'm in.

    re Varian... just don't have the balls. I'm going to wait out the report and act tomorrow.

    Well there I'm done for the day. I've called the low for you all to within 5 points. EMC is going to get us ROARING tomorrow... I'm confident sometime in Nov we will revisit these levels... but for the moment I'm looking up.... why not. everyone else has started to look down finally! ~ stoney
  10. I'n now in VAR Can't help it folks! I'm a dick ted ' to this as you can see. pray for me tomorrow. ~stoney
    #10     Oct 24, 2007