Thats what I'm guessing as well. It makes a big bang on the front page and gives a burst of good sentiment for the market. It certainly couldn't be ruled out as a factor
I'm entering into your thread doesn't mean I'm an expert as required by the title. I have no clue. But one thing we must figure out and rapidly reject is the following assumption. Does trading intrinsically exist mathematic formulas? The answer is no. That answer has been proven to be true for more than 300 years and likely to continue to be true for the rest of human existence. If there were intrinsically exist mathematic formulas then they must be found long time ago, and the guy who found them must had been so rich and banned from the market.
If you are looking for 100% certainty, you are in the wrong business my friend. You should enter into the funeral business, people ALWAYS die. Thats for certain.
The new deal for Citi. The government is taking on 300 billion of their bad investments, which has changed the model. The fed is no longer looking to put out fires in an ad hoc basis. They have essentially said that they will monetize the whole financial system. There is no more downside risk for banks. In my opinion, you will not be seeing much downside from here.
A slightly different explanation is that we are still in a liquidity-driven environment. Practically all markets can move up and down together in unison, regardless of how things used to behave long ago.
I tend to agree but there is the counterarguement that this giant rally really began on Friday when Citi was at its worse.
Stocks have been inversely correlated with the Dollar most of the time since 2003. That's one reason international stocks did so well 2003-2007 and have done so poorly this year. Stocks and gold have moved together most of the time, too, though this has been more shaky. Stocks and oil have been even shakier, but there's a good reason they're moving together now. They all went down on fears of a global slowdown, so they rally together as well. If crude moves over $100/barrel and high gas/energy costs start weighing down on consumers/businesses again, the oil/stock correlation will reverse. But we're in no danger of that right now.
Looks like a correction in the deflation trade, or a resurgence of the inflation trade. One in the same thing, I gather.