Hello Mediterranean_star, Yes, I can teach you how to trade. Do you have $3000 to pay pal me and I teach you and answer all your questions? Private Message Me. Do not listen or read the other traders on ET, I will tell you ALL you need to know.
I'll drop it to $2000, and include free fun video analogies. Surely he will go for my offer. But at that price, I should prolly' wear a Swatch.
On some level, I like you post, but I generally think its all far too complex. Every single piece of advice you suggest has far too much analysis necessary. First you say we have to find which stocks will outperform the market. What kind of metrics are we going to use to do this? Will TSLA outperform because the CEO walks on water? Will Apple outperform because too many dummies out there want to make and upload Tik Tok videos? Next you talk about finding the market conditions that allow for this. Once again, far too many variables. Even if we find this out, then we have to figure out exactly what market condition we are in right now. I'm not even sure what to call this other than an upside down world running on the FED. You have massive stimulus, excessive unemployment, bubbles everywhere, the threat of both inflation and deflation, etc. I challenge anyone to make sense of all this. A predictive framework with a better than 50/50 in this environment is just wishful thinking. Then we have to keep our eye out on macro stuff like interest rates and market conditions? Jesus, we practically need a PhD in economics for this. Do we follow the FED overnight rate.... the 10 year, etc? Lastly, if we are to put all of these factors on paper, how the heck do we begin to decide if this means that our chosen stock will go up or down??? The risk management portion of your reply is spot on, and I really like the distinction between taking a mean reverting trade vs. trend following. But to conclude that you shouldn't use price action is just flat out wrong. You are already using price action if you bring up the idea of mean reverting vs. trend following. All the above points that you mention to watch are already contained within the price. As an example, rising interest rates can be both good and bad. The market can conclude that rising rates means the FED is trying to control inflation, which some might see as a good thing, and hence bid the market up. Others might see rising rates as an extra cost for a company and hence a bad thing, so stocks come down. We simply cannot know how the entire market will decide what variable is good or bad for the price of a stock. Remember, we are in a market right now that favors horrible jobs numbers because it means more stimulus. But nobody seems to worry about where that stimulus will come from. Its all just nuts. So in the end, its best to just keep it simple. Watch the price, and have rules around what you do when price does this or that, rather than what you do when some news event or piece of information hits your radar. Your analysis of the news or information is pointless if the rest of the market doesn't agree with you.
Hello Mediterranean_star, I would like to teach you. I am an experienced trader, 18 years of experience. I'm based in The Netherlands. I want nothing in return; I just want to share my knowledge.
You’re becoming more altruistic, Trading must be great! Previously you wrote: “Bring together people who have something to contribute! You can only become a member if you really have something to contribute. This is a strict policy. This is a high quality group. I created a new group on LinkedIn, for high quality trading discussions. If you want to become a member, send a request to join on LinkedIn and state your EliteTrader user ID. Then I review your posts and see whether you can become a member or not”.
god forbid having to do some work! Well you just described a liquidity-rich regime, with a rising credit impulse, and low interest rates and actually list some of the risks (level of unemployment, deflation, inflation). If you spent a few minutes to look up what subsequent returns look like during a period of rising credit impulses, increasing liquidity, and low interest rates then you would actually be able to improve upon your 50/50 forecast. if you just googled "key macro indicators" you'd find a good list to start with. you can conduct an analysis to see what has happened historically to your stock (or stocks like it) in order to improve upon your selection. price is a lagging indicator lol, show me your winning strategy that is 100% based upon price action (hint: it doesn't exist). this is obtuse...i didn't realize i was debating with eugene fama. you literally just put a view that's tied to the macro conditions you described earlier...JFC if the price contains all information, then what makes you think there is opportunity if a stock moves up or down. sorry, you're all over the place...I think you may want to take a basic capital markets course.
I buy stocks that are trending upwards and sell them when they break the trend. We've had this discussion before. All the information a trader need is in the charts.