Can any sane soul trade grains successfully?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by theenttan, Dec 28, 2007.

  1. I am expecting wheat would continue its march upwards like Soy so I have been waiting to buy. I almost bought this morning since 908 is 61.8% retracement of this past giant move. 877 is the 50%.

    I will be entering if we can't close daily below 877. But ... I am scared!

    Ag is really scary compared to indices. To be honest, my technical analysis for a swing trade doesn't work on grains. I simply cannot figure out how to trade grains. I am wondering if there's any rhyme or logic as suppose to "insider info" or gambling.

    If you can claim to successfully trade grains, leave me a pointer.

    Do you use seasonal data? Do you use spreads? Use COT data? Do you only day or swing trade? Any book or reference material you recommend?

    I need to be convinced grains is tradable ... A few more failed grain trades and I will leave them alone and just quietly eat my $5 chunk of tofu :))

  2. Hmmm....I think the issue is the tofu you are eating...

    The soy isoflavones mimic estrogen in the body, which in turn inhibits testosterone's effectiveness in the body.

    This can lead to stress and fear issues. :D but can.
  3. I hear what your saying man. Grains are just completely wacko right now. I would say your best bet is to go back to college and get a major in meteorology or just flip a coin and pick which direction its going. Look at beans today. Within like half a second we dropped around 45 cents!!! Within a fucking half a second!!!??? This thing is just so wild now I would recommend staying the hell out of it until it settles down which could be a long time.

    Good Trading
  4. I used to just use RSI OB/OS, and the 10 and 20 days MA. But I always entered too early or stick my head out against the freight train.

    For example, some time in Apr/May I bought Soy at 838, held through 821, and sold 849 and the rest is history. I never looked at it after 849 because I had stomach butterflies indigestion.

    I shorted Soy 1050 area based on double top formation, and wham closed that short at 1080 upon break out.

    I have also tried to figure out using commercial's total based on COT data. Again, no rhyme or logic.

    I think fundamentally we are going into inflation (duh, only if I realized 6 months ago...). The one reason I am looking into grains or PM is to hedge that inflation a bit. Of course, a trader always get greedy over a few hundred points move in a strong trend while the indices chop chop around.

    This time around, I plan to use this swing method as it has worked well in a few occasions this past two months for me:

    - enter between 61.8% and 50% retracement on the daily
    - buy when daily close above the high f the low bar (ideally, price is also above the 8MA)
    - stop is at -10 the low

    Yesterday, I started looking at seasonal data from
    so I see there's prior precedence to wheat's crapping out end of Dec. In fact, according to seasonals, wheat isn't bullish in January (I haven't finished my study).

    I just have this strange feeling that no matter what TA I use, it is not going to work on grains. So the seasonal data is giving me a new light to see the market. But seasonal is historical stats. So I figure I would start "asking around" to see if there's anything more I can learn or study :)
  5. According to this person's stats, Soy and Corn is being sold by COT.

    I still believe there's some merits to COT info for commodities, if anyone can make any sense into it :D
  6. xcube


  7. This is really time for extra care. Everything is volatile so keeping position size small is the only thing I can be certain of.

    I try to tell myself everyday: Risk in check is more important than huge profits.

    And yet, I am popping my head into grains...
  8. Double check your strats..

    I traded Soy and Corn successfully this summer and I am trading them successfully now....

    To be honest, they were more volatile from March till July than they are now.
  9. I know of a couple successful grain traders and they generally use 2-3 week momentum...

    But I haven't asked them how they have been doing in the recent grains market....

    Sorry about the testosterone thing, I was just messing with tied up so I wanted to finish the post with the little amount of input I could offer. Best of luck.
  10. Do you day or swing trade?
    #10     Dec 28, 2007