if the newbie is smart enough to find one system that works, then they would be smart enough to find another when the first one fails (Or sooner if they are really on the ball). Same as an experienced pro.
Good point. And I'm not suggesting finding a profitable strategy might not take X years or an additional Y years to be able to even know a profitable strategy when you see one! And then you bring up a good point about when and if a strategy fails. But a person can trade for years and years and never be profitable without a good strategy or, conversely, could be profitable from very early on if he has a good strategy. It all depends on the strategy/system. How long does it take a scientist to win a Nobel Prize? 3 years? No. It all depends on the discovery. Paying your dues and putting in lots of hard work and not expecting to win a Nobel Prize your first year...for sure. Being smart is important. Mentoring under a someone brilliant helps. But it all depends on getting/find/creating that discovery. You might do it early on, you might never do it.
what do you think would be better for a new trader - already having found a profitable strategy - but still having to develop all the mental skills to become a profitable trader - or being mentally in the right shape right from the start - and still having to find a profitable style?
I wonder different strategies and their associated styles would have quite different rates of returns, even all are profitable ones. Starting to make small profits (that may be associated with high risks) does not imply starting to trade for a living. Improving an existing profitable strategy of small profit volume to make it more profitble would be sometimes much challenging, even if finally attained.
No it won't. Not in the reality of day-to-day market fluctuations, with a new trader who has not taken the time to fully comprehend the reason for specific rules, discipline and money managment. That ONLY comes through taking hits and getting wacked. I recall reading that Rascke tried to train a newbie in her system, sitting side by side, following specific rules, and it didn't work. Why? Because he hadn't had the value of experience, and that's what it's all about. You just can't shortcut experience in this business.
Definitely would want to be right mentally. This business is so much more psychological than newbies think... To me trading isn't me against the markets.. Its me against myself.. Jeff
Having the mental skills is MUCH more important. Finding profitable systems is relatively easy, but if you read the posts here and elsewhere, traders don't blow out nearly as often from grinding down their equity slowly via a poor system than they do by losing large chunks and riding small losers until they become big ones, from poor discipline, and bad risk and money management. The Market Wizards books were the most useful thing I read in finally making the change to consistent profitability, and the authors almost without exception talk about the importance of discipline rather than their "secret magic methods." Jessie
For index futures, about 8 weeks. He would net about 60% ahead by then and be able to enter and exit sucessfully and be able to exit with a flat trae as required.
great post. Definitely a three wocka comment. Ed should hang your post in the bathroom in front of the toilet.