Camarilla equeation?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by luk122, Dec 23, 2003.

  1. manz66

    manz66

    "Exclusive Interview with Nick Stott, creator of the Camarilla Equation
    camarilla. cam·a·ril·la. A group of confidential, often scheming advisers; a cabal.[Spanish, diminutive of cámara, room, from Late Latin camera. See chamber.]

    Nick Stott is a tall, unassuming gentleman, of middle years, and the tasteful trappings of a man who enjoys success, but has not let it go to his head. We tracked Nick Stott down to an exclusive bar in the fashionable district in which he lives with his wife and children. Nick granted us a few minutes out of his busy schedule to talk about the Camarilla Equation and how he discovered it.

    CE: So Nick, how did you come to invent the Camarilla Equation?

    Nick Stott: Basically, it sprang from my interest in Fibbonacci levels. I was working as a bond trader back in the 80's, and started to notice that there were regular patterns emerging every day, differing only in scale. In the evenings at home, I managed to gather enough data to produce a statistical model of what was happening. Although Fibbos are actually (in my opinion of course!) rather unreliable until after the event, they did lead me to notice something else, something much more interesting in fact. Many long nights later, it all fell into place, and it was then fairly simple to reduce it down to a calculation that mapped nicely onto the factual data. I must admit to being surprised at how good and consistent it was, especially across many different instruments. It doesn't require any paramaterisation, and works as well on a liquid stock as on a soyabean futures contract. In my eyes, it's almost like the 'golden mean' of trading.

    CE: Sorry, what's the 'Golden Mean'?

    Nick Stott: Ah. Since classical times, builders have used a ratio of height to width that is essentially... pleasing to the eye. The Camarilla Equation works in pretty much the same way - it is all about believability - at what point will the majority of traders stop believing it can continue the move, and close their trades, causing a reversal...After all, everybody is watching the same chart! (Note - Nick Stott had a classical education at a top flight school)

    CE: I see. Do you sell the equation?

    Nick Stott: I'm a busy man, so I don't have time to promote or market the Camarilla Equation. But I have licensed it to a company who run www.surefirething.com, and they sell an online version. Works well for both parties, I feel.

    CE: Have you licensed it anywhere else?

    Nick Stott: No. Why would I? I'm aware that other companies or people attempt to sell 'versions' of my equation, but I really can't be bothered to chase them up. Their versions don't work as well as the real deal, I'm told. Caveat Emptor, I'd say!

    CE: Excuse me?

    Nick Stott: Caveat Emptor - Its Latin. "Let the buyer beware"

    CE: OK! Point taken. One final question - why did you call it the 'Camarilla Equation'?

    Nick Stott: Ha! Everyone asks me that. When I first started trading, I thought (as a lot of people do!) that the markets were controlled by a secret 'insiders club' of powerful organisations who manipulated prices for their own benefit. I remember that at the time I was smugly sure that this was so, and was excited to be joining (as I then thought!) this secret 'cabal'. Of course, as I learned more about the markets, I realised that this was nonsense, and that the markets are far too big to be effectively controlled, even by gigantic financial corporations. However, it still looked to me as though there was a pattern in what was supposed to be the 'random walk', a pattern that matched very closely what I imagined a 'secret society' would try to implement in order to maximise their revenues. The obvious conclusion, of course is that if you have enough participants, statistically they start to behave in broadly predictable 'over-ways', and this leads to the patterning that the equation is so good at predicting. The word 'Camarilla' is based on the latin word for room (camera), and it means basically a small clique of 'advisors' who try to manipulate the person in power for their own ends. Frankly, it was just a joke, and I am always surprised at how seriously everyone took it. Happy?

    CE: Yes. Thanks for your time, Nick, and nice meeting you.

    Nick Stott: You're welcome, old chap".
     
    #31     Apr 24, 2004
  2. I wonder if the original camarilla has made any litigation attack against the usurpators : It is Kurzencwyg that was publicized in trader's mag and not Nick patata :D.
     
    #32     Apr 24, 2004
  3. I was right Nick Stott the supposed Bond Trader is a marketing invention see below :D

    "Two websites by the name of ... and an offshoot at ... have been posted on the net making unauthorized claims to the investment community regarding the Camarilla Equation. The sites claim an individual named Nick Stotts is the originator of the Camarilla Equation. These sites also claim they offer the Camarilla Equation in a tangent format. These claims have never been allowed or authorized by Mr. M. B. Kurzencwyg to be published outside or beyond this website. Mr. Kurzencwyg, the known author on Wall Street of the equation, filed for Copyright status in January of 1997 for his formula. The actual discovery of the formula took place on August 13, 1990 when he made the discovery in Miami, Florida.

    These sites, ... and ... are currently being investigated by authorities in the United States and Great Britain and a case file has been opened and reviewed with the RCMP Copyright Fraud Division in Canada with RCMP Constable William McKay for criminal charges relating to Internet Piracy and Copyright Infringement for the Camarilla Equation daytrading formula. This department is also in contact with FBI and Scotland Yard."
     
    #33     Apr 26, 2004
  4. There are other protection than patent. Coca Cola has never patented his formula for example :D. See above. I won't show Cama any more and I advise Igor to ask Baron to delete his post as it appears that it is now illegal. Baron may have problem because of that.
     
    #34     Apr 26, 2004
  5. The name Coca Cola is trademarked. But Coca Cola has no "protection" for their formula.

    Employees who may have access to it (very limited # with access to full formula) sign non-disclosure agreements. Breach of the NDA is actionable in civil court. However there is no outright protection of the formula. If someone managed to reverse engineer the formula with no NDA-covered information access, they would be free to publish it (just as the formula/recipes for many other "secret" food products have been).

    There is no legal protection for the Camarilla garbage. As was noted earlier, it's nothing more than a bunch of meaningless BS pivot point-like calculations.

    If someone signed an NDA for some crap like that, then they might personally be actionable if they published the information under breach of the NDA as well as possibly breach of copyright (but only to the extent they the person reproduced text from a copyrighted document - the simple algebraic formulas involved with this junk would not be covered by copyright since they are not considered to be in the same context of copyrightable intellectual property as written text).

    However, if someone just reverse engineered the baloney, they can publish it anywhere they want (although the use of the name Camarilla Equation "might" be protected under trademark).

    Baron has absolutely no exposure since courts have repeatedly ruled that a website like this isn't responsible for an individual poster's actions. Anyone seeking to "go after" someone posting the BS formulas would have to first prove that the person obtained information while covered by an NDA.

    BTW - this is purportedly the Coca Cola formula - <img src="http://www.sodamuseum.bigstep.com/Images/coke.gif" border="0" alt="Coke Recipe">
     
    #35     Apr 26, 2004
  6. That's what I said about the formula protection itself. That it is meaningless or not is not the question like that you don't like Coca cola or not is not the question :D. The name Coca Cola is protected as well as the name Camarilla. And they have also non-disclosure agreement like Coca Cola. I know a client who had to pay 750000 francs (100000$) for just using a part of a firm name with good faith he accepted to change but still the other firm asked for damage reparation and they obtained it. The original cama I don't know if true or not pretends to have 5000 subscribers, if it's true they can pretend that a commercial prejudice was made to them.

     
    #36     Apr 26, 2004
  7. manz66

    manz66



    Here are calcs for camilla from http://www.tacticaltrader.com/viewtopic.php?t=1312

    L4= (high-low)*1.1/2+close
    L3= (high-low)*1.1/4+close
    L2= (high-low)*1.1/6+close
    L1= (high-low)*1.1/12+close

    L1= close-(high-low)*1.1/12
    L2= close-(high-low)*1.1/6
    L3= close-(high-low)*1.1/4
    L4= close-(high-low)*1.1/2

    plus spreadsheet with the calcs

    http://www.tacticaltrader.com/download.php?id=1456
     
    #37     May 2, 2004
  8. I tried the last 5 days of the YM. This is what I got with 24hr trading with an "always in" test:


    Trade #1 -$135.00
    Trade #2 -$135.00
    Trade #3 +$210.00
    Trade #4 -$115.00
    Trade #5 +$430.00
    Trade #6 +600.00
    Trade #7 +430.00
    Trade #8 -$220.00
    Trade #9 +190.00

    $1,255.00/contract was the total with a long position open from 1218.00 we a reversal set at 10238.00 as we speak.

    Michael B.
     
    #38     May 3, 2004
  9. ooops I mean long from 10218.00 and the reversal is set at 10238.00

    Michael B.
     
    #39     May 3, 2004
  10. manz66

    manz66

    If you use some other filters like volume dry up then increase or vise versa, then also one momentum indicator (like rsi, cci, stoch, macd), you can do better. Good luck.
     
    #40     May 3, 2004