Calling the bottom

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Jacob Fries, Feb 28, 2009.

  1. Check out the attachment, then rant & rave to your hearts' content.
    • a.doc
      File size:
      54.5 KB
  2. pathus21


    I'm a little confused. You say the market is going up and that we are going into a depression?
  3. Nope. I said nothing about the market going back up until after the spike down.
  4. And I will add that, looking at future years, the final bottom will be under DOW 2,000, according to axiomatic charts of the 1930s and present, adjusting for volume and historical volatility.
  5. The 1930s depression was more severe. I think we'll see the Dow bottom closer to 4000-4500.
  6. Pekelo


    Jacob, I have missed you! I liked your journal, will you continue it?

    Mum is the word, you can trust me....
  7. So, pardon me, but your saying Dow sub 2000 in nominal numbers?

    How'd you arrive at that figure if you don't mind me asking?
  8. We are looking at the 80s, right now. We are now where near 29s.....Not yet at least.

    I can see the INDU hitting 6500 but not much lower unless the OBAMA NATION decides to start "nationalizing" 100% of all the troubled banks. Meaning puting 100% of the tarp money into them, to wipe out share holders.

    Unemployment is not even near the high's during Carter at this point.

    We could call this a "DEPRESSION" but no one really knows the definition at this point, total situation, diffrent times, far more "People" on earth, skew the %s.

    Nevertheless, I think the "Markets" are toast, the final caputilation will come when the "Bottom" fishers jump in during a Panic Rally and it fails. No idea when that will happen.

    If you work for a Public Traded company, your odds of being laid off are very good. At least another 10% to take the numberst to the 12% -15% unemployed range.

    If you work for a private company, that stacked up a lot of chips during the boom, you might make it.

    Welcome to the OBAMA NATION....sit back and enjoy the Show!!!
  9. I have DOW 2800 but I can't tell you where I bought my crystal ball...
  10. As I said, look at the chart and make your own axiomatic comparison. 1929 was NOT the bottom of the market during the Great Depression.
    #10     Mar 1, 2009