So let's see. You're calling a top of some kind in oil, you short at 108.71 and you cover at 108.56... and you're tooting your own horn? If you feel oil is toppish, why would you liquidate a trade that moved in your favour? That's a classic newb mistake. Did you ever hear that you can't go broke taking a profit? Don't you believe it. I do commend you for trying to step in and short when everyone else is scared to do so. It seems bizarre that you closed the trade out though. monday morning qb-ing says i should have bot back when oil was down a buck.. .. as far as newb mistake you are right, but smart money knows oil's major risk is in an overnight event related spike.. not going to hold overnight if not in big profits intraday.. i did the right thing by exiting... near the close.. will short more on monday.. i will post times/price if anyone interested. i did hold trades on thursday for two hours?
You better get those rose colored glasses cleaned buddy! 3/13 HI 110.98 LO 108.76 CLOSE 110.33 3/14 HI 110.92 LO 108.84 CLOSE 110.10 Could be retrace next week, of course, the above numbers are not exactly screaming a top is in place Mister Pickens. I would only trade from the short side with a strict exit plan, you are gonna run out of air if you keep tooting your own horn over there!
surdo? may i call you absurdo! like i said.. lower highs.. hmm from your data which is for the wrong contract.. (MAY is the new APRIL) the high of today is lower then yesterday.. visually this would be a lower bar than the previous day based on the high.. of course you stated we could havea correction.. well thats all i need .. it is still a top isn't it.. i am not proclaiming that this is the highest top in oil over the next few years.. i am saying to get short now and that is all... i'll let you know exactly when i think it is time to get long again.. so you can do the opposite,, just state what you think and do not sugar coat it with buts and ifs.. like you did at the bottom of your quote.. how about a fun..gentlemans bet.. i bet that by friday of next week.. oil is lower than it is now.. will you take the other side of this trade? pick the price you want us to use as your reference from sometime near the close and make sure its may
The May data is even less convincing, than April's. I do not dispute oil "COULD" go lower from here, I do however find your pompous table pounding mannerism, not only obnoxious but incondusive to being a successful trader. It's ironic you want to make a week long bet in Crude, yet trade for 1/4's and 1/2's ... are you an investor or a day trader? The only bet I will make is against the other sides of my own trades. Stop trying to call tops and bottoms and enjoy the markets. Good luck on your oil trade and don't run out of air. e s
I will be shorting Oil when I see a high volume spike mixed with a big price spike, or if I see a very big net negative cumulative delta divergence. The last big delta divergence in oil was Feb 2007 and we were trading 47.80 that day when I entered my trade LONG. Who would have ever thought a 47 to 100 run could happen in one year - that was an unbelievable run.
i am not conceited, but i am convinced i'm the best... the point of using may is that i won't have to roll forward next week if i decide to hold over night... LIGHTEN UP mr.surdo...why don't you bet me ..just for fun.. no money..no face rubbing.. just put your real thoughts into action..once again in your absurd post you state that we could have a correction.. no s*** sherlock we could also have a rally...we could also wake up monday and a nuclear war could break out..there are infinite possibilities... you have to stick your neck out everyonce in awhile when you believe in something ..especially if you want to profit from it.. so c'mon have some fun and we'll check the price friday..you are going to check it anyway!.. hell i would be happy if you won.,.. i don't care about losing... i just want you to conquer your fears sir! Won't you let me help you?
I bailed at 77.80 so I missed half the fun! At least I bought the recent pullback into the mid 80 area - went LONG 87.50 and I was all out at 109.50 - so I think this means Oil will go to at least $130.
I agree with you here that oil is looking very toppish. MACD divergence on ALL the large timeframes (daily, 240, 120, 60 min) Its also in a measured move price projection zone. Like any top though, things get very spikey. If you're setting your stop just above highs, you may need to re-enter the trade again if stopped out and the setup still looks good. If you make sure not to flake out of the trade if you get stopped for a small loss once or twice though I think you've got a good shot at riding this thing down $5 or more in a very short amount of time. It may make it to $112, so just keep looking for low risk entries IMO. Of course its not the absolute top, the fundamentals of a growing world economy ensure that, but its definitely a good counter-trend opportunity.