California RE bubble.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by blast19, Mar 25, 2007.

  1. blast19


  2. DC area is also getting hit hard as will most of the country.

    The only current buffer zone is in South Texas, where RE is projected to grow in value and more and more money is pouring into the region for safety.

    However, this situation of meltdown in the rest of the country has already create a mass amount of wealth in the "Buffer Zone" and equity is keeping pace, not speeding out of control in the region.

  3. Good blog..

    This is another reaffirms the notion that I picked a PERFECT time to significantly increase my income.. I'l lbe living in my apartment until I get the perfect home.. :)
  4. Adobian


    I don't think there is a so called Buffer Zone. Besides, Houston got a Tornado threat recently.
  5. wshhmm


  6. Where are the bubbles? Look at it from a supply & demand perspective.

    San Diego, population 1250000, # of single-fam housing permits in 2005: 1050
    Los Angeles, pop. 3800000, # permits: 2500
    San Jose, pop. 950000, # permits: 800
    Bakersfield, pop. 300000, # permits 4900
    Sacramento, pop. 450000, # permits: 1800

    I contend that San Jose and LA are not in bubbles (although outlying areas around LA may be). Bakersfield is like the Hindenburg. You should not talk about "the CA RE Bubble" because the state is not in a bubble; only certain regions are.

    Additional bubbles:
    Bonita Springs, pop. 40000, # permits: 1400
    Las Vegas: pop. 550000, # permits issued 2001-05: 26000 !!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
    Phoenix: pop. 1450000, # permits issued 2001-05: 46000
  7. maxpi


    I live in a semi-remote area of the Mojave Desert. Our home prices are the most volatile on the planet, when housing is hot our prices go up like crazy and we sell to the people that can't afford the less rural [read that as: more desirable] areas within 50-75 miles. When RE is not hot our houses are literally give aways, I knew a guy that got 2 freebie houses during the last downturn, one had only 11 years to go on a really small mortgage.

    We have the bubbles of the bubbles cyclically. A few years back we had 9 abandoned houses out of 14 on the block, last year they were all selling for hundreds of thousands and in a few years more they might be abandoned again. I know a guy that settled here years back and he just buys the dips, borrows on the way up, hangs on for dear life during the downturns and generally has a good time.

    The lenders never get it for the most part. One local bank was the most conservative in the nation at one point with 10% reserves and they did not do any subprime loans, that is the only financial institution that I have ever seen that had intelligent life inside the walls and they probably only got that way by learning the hard way.
  8. blast19


    max, exactly my point. Places that sell because of their proximity to other more desirable but expensive places should never be priced the same as those more expensive locations that they're distancing themselves from. This time they overdid it with places like Sacramento and Bakersfield in my opinion and prices WERE SO HIGH there that it's going to be a painful drop for a lot of people who aren't even close to coping with reality yet.

    That's why this will be a lot lot worse than it seems now.
  9. blast19


  10. San Diego IS in a bubble.
    1. All time high record inventories ***
    2. Less than 5% of the population can afford the median home price
    3. 1 in 10 homes for sale are bank owned
    4. The population has been shrinking for several years straight as everyone moves away
    5. Tightening loan standards, no more interest only arms with zero down, sorry
    6. Home sitting for half a year to a year before selling
    7. Foreclosures accelerating, even though at record levels

    = death to real estate in SD

    #10     Mar 27, 2007