All we need now is a fake phone call to China and we break out of the little bullish pattern that we've been stuck in for the past few weeks.
That is awesome krugman, your "before and after" pics. You guys really love each other, and it shows in those pics. So fun to see some light in this dark place we seem to be. *hugs* P.S. You definitely look better with the beard. Keep it.
Now that the weekly bullish pin bar that I pointed out a number of weeks ago has finally broken out, I can start planning for the next phase of trading. I have build a theta positive options portfolio over the past few weeks and built the positions so they all day positive SPY beta weighted delta. That caused me to be quite long the SPY. Now that price has finally broken out the next step will be to look for the price level where I should eventually lighten up my long deltas, go neutral, or even go delta negative for a bit of protection for a pullback. The first logical area will be the ATH. Naturally I will not make any adjustments at this level since breaking into new ATH's is the expectation with this pattern. The next logical resistance area will be the upper trend line that leads out of the gap and tracks the 2 previous swing highs. That level sits in the 3075 region. For me I will start lightening up delta's in the 3060 region.
I just closed this for a nice profit. My plan for yesterday was simple, if we closed below 18.80 I was going to keep the short open. I anticipate that silver was going to hug 18.80 all day and then sell off hard into the close, and low and behold, that is exactly what happened. My plan for today was also simple, if we opened green I would close at the open. If we opened red I would hold throughout the day and if it looked like we would close below 18.80 I would hold into next week. Overnight selling lead to a very bearish weekly candlestick pattern to form. After NFP came out, price popped and a very bullish daily pin bar formed. It's funny how quickly things can change. Silver has the opportunity to either set up a very bullish or very bearish setup for the weeks ahead, and it all comes down to where price will close by the end of the day. I am going to go out on a limb and say I think the bullish daily candle wins out. At any rate though, I think the parabolic phase is over and we see more 2-sided action going forward.
After now trading for around 7 years and studying tens of thousands of price action setups, I definitely am getting very "in tune" with the price action I see and predicting where markets will eventually go. I have had a freakishly high success rate this year. It is more of a gut instinct than indicators or a check list. What I have come to believe is that consistent trading profitability occurs in the margins. The "margins" being those very small hints that price action throws out that you can't really read until you have 5-10 years and thousands of hours of chart watching under your belt.
Case and point - Yesterday about 10 minutes before the close I checked the charts and it was as clear as day, the perfect trade was going to be long markets and short oil. Today, what do you know, markets are up and oil is down. Perfect pairs trade. Totally in tune with the price action.
Weekly silver chart just turned uber bearish. Unless silver stages some amazing rally in the next 2-3 hours, this is basically going to be a "sell every rally" situation in silver until major support at $16.50. Already rolled down my GDXJ calls in anticipation of further selling next week. Looking at some short calls in SLV if the price is right.