In the financial times there is a article saying that the cad is one of the most oil-price sensitive currencies. why?
Oil sands related tax revenues are leaving the gov't flush with funds. CAD is effectively 'backed' by Canadian oil reserves much as USD was once backed by gold.
Go type something like "Statscan trade balance" into google and have a look at how imports and exports break down by category. Fundamentally the price of Natural gas is the most important detriment of demand for Canadian dollars. However crude oil still has more effect on market sediment. I think that C$ is still pricing in $12 nat gas. I can see the Canadian trade balance continuing to weaken. Add to this David Dodge's view of the economy suggesting rate cuts in the near future tells mean that fundamentally the Canadian dollar is bearish. However market sediment is still very bullish so everything I just mentioned could remain irrelevant for some time to come.
The Canadian Dollar is commodity-sensitive because of oil, natural gas, gold, grains, lumber & canadian bacon.
Oh yeah, bacon. Forgot about that. And beer too. Canada has good beer. It's the glacier water ... CAD to the moon.
I think you would have had a hard time trading CAD this past year if you assumed any impetus off nat gas.