Cad Long Term View And Targets

Discussion in 'Forex' started by maties, Apr 27, 2006.

  1. maties


    The CAD has potentially the best risk reward ratio for the long term.
    CAD Price History below 1.1225
    27 April 2006 Low = 1.1214 (Lowest Price in 28 Years)
    December 1991 Low = 1.1225 (15 years ago)
    Previously below 1.1225 = July 1978 (28 Years ago)

    Long with Stop on Weekly Close below 1.1225.

    The chart below is the weekly CAD. There is a triple divergence. I believe the turn in the CAD is imminent

    This provides a excellent Long Term buying opportunity for the CAD to target 1.20/1.27/1.34/1.42 levels.

    Your views and comments is appreciated.
  2. maties


    The CAD has closed the week on the lowest leel since July 1978 (28 years ago)

    If the CAD do not retrace back to the 1.1225 level within the next two sessions the CAD is targeting lows at 1.0182 (1 Jan 1977)

    I do not know if the Canadian economy can withstand these levels against the dollar? I know that the Canadian economy is fully dependant on US economy and exports to the US. Do not believe the Canadians can be competitive at these rates?

    Anyone with other views is imput will be appreciated.
  3. maties


    From the Long term EW count it looks as if the CAD is close to the bottom (Unless the count is not correct. The 3rd wave was simple and therefore I believe the 5th wave count could be a complicated move. At this point is look like 3 or 5 smaller waves.

    Any other specialist in EW count with a different observation?

    Wave1 = 1.6189-1.5003 (1186 pips) - 1jan2002-1july2002 (6months)
    Wave 2 = 1.5003-1.6049 (1046 pips) - 1july2002-1aug2002 (2months)
    Wave 3 = 1.6049 - 1.2679 (3370 pips) - 1aug2002-1jan2004 (18months)
    Wave 4 = 1.2679 - 1.4002 (1323 pips)- 1jan2004-1may2004(5months)
    Wave 5 Current = 1.4002 - 1.1160 (2842 pips) 1may2004-1may2006 (24months)
    Wave 5 Possible Target= ?

    The retrace in the CAD always happens in a shorter time period than the down moves. I believe a pull back in the long term could target at least the high of wave four (1.40) OR

    We should see the CAD run for all time lows below parity. (0.96)

  4. Fyr...
  5. maties


    The monthly shows some divergence on the RSI.

    The weekly divergence as indicated in the chart (weekly).

    Price vs Slow stochs & RSI. Oct 2004/Sep2005/April2006