Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by bbpp, Jan 31, 2017.
OK, I stand corrected. Personally I still don't like those kinds of systems because I have a hard time following too many markets.
High leverage is a relative measure, not an absolute measure.
That means for different traders, there are different leverage suitable for each of them.
The higher trading skill, the higher leverage a trader can take, because relatively speaking,higher skill trader can exit at right time, therefore can incur smaller loss than lower skill traders.And they also can make more profit, so to offset more loss than lower skill traders.
So whether a leverage is suitable for a trader, look at his maximum drawdown.
I would like to mention :
Smart volatility Short:
And the same develop's strategy
Smart volatility Long:
I check a lot of good performance volatility strategies, all got big hit on 5/17/2017, except Smart volatility Short and Smart volatility Long.
How could he avoid that big hit? You can see his return in some recent months were lower than
his average. So I guess he tried to reduce his position on some days that he thought were more risky, based on his data and analysis method, at the cost of lowering his return.
So I think his 2 strategies along with VIX Trader professional, are currently 3 best volatility strategies at C2.
Of the 3 strategies,which one is the best? It is a close call.
And it seems to me VIX Trader professional is a little better than the other two.
I am thinking like you that VIX Trader professional is the best choice in C2 at the moment...
I have more findings on "Simplicity Trading"
1.It always long。This is quite different than a traditional martingale such as Alpha and Omega.
In a bull market, always longing is actually going with general market trend.Although it still trades against short time trend, the risk is much lower than a traditional martingale.As current market has been shallow on pullback, his buying in dip incurred lower risk.
2. He bought after market had already been down a couple of days.So the downward momentum had be released certain amount before his longing.
3. He usually long at market close. This let him avoid big down day like 5/17/2017.
So he was actually aware some of martingale's shortcomings and took some measures to improve it. These measures enabled him to perform well in current market situation.I would call his strategy"Improved martingale".
If current market situation doesn't change,he could continue his current performance.
But his strategy could not survive market situation like in 10/25/2016--11/4/2016， much less to say market situation in 2014 and 2015.
Getting bored, so I looked up systems. Ultron VIX IRA Fund. Only 12 trades always long in 5 months, up 30% although May is slightly down. Looks like the course of the "6 months wonder" started to hit it early.
I think this system also likes to martingale, judged by the number of shares used. We shall see how it performs when the market turns down...
I could repeat almost everything about 24K Longs, but with a different instrument. It is always long gold, martingaling, and although the 53% 5 months return sounds good, mostly it happened in February and March and since then a big nothing, 1-1.7%.
Don't Worry might just be one of the best strategies out there, certainly the most laid back. 8 months of only profitable returns with 21 trades. This guy only trades 3 times a month!! This is how trading should be done and the rest of your time spent on the beach!!!
Successfully avoiding the dreaded 6 months dying zone it actually recorded its best return this month with 1 trade only, by going long 5 ES for 5 days (37 points). This guy either has huge patience or a real job that let's him trade only around lunch break...(that was a joke, he usually trades at the open)
So far he has been long only, but so was the market. I would like to see him going short too.
Now the returns are not huge (except May's 10%), but very consistent and all the losers are small. I just hope I am not going to jinx him with this review...
I only have 1 caveat. I would prefer if he could just stick to trading the ES (or any other index futures) instead of going long ETF shares. He would tie down much less money with probably better returns. Case in point:
He was long SPDR shares since mid-October until May, using 30K capital returning 3300 profits. Had he just stayed long 1 ES during that period, the SPX went up 240 points or so, thus the return would have been 12K using 1 future's overnight margin as capital...
Very similar to Don't Worry is 4QTiming FutNQ. In 7 months it had a 2 months (March, April) dip, but this month it has recovered with a 17% return. Only long trades, mostly NQ occasionally throwing in a completely unnecessary stock trade not making anything with those. Why oh why may I ask??? 18 trades in 7 months, this dude is just as relaxed as the Down't worry guy. He started the year with 58% and 29% that is just as good as it gets in C2 land...
Actually he was technically short twice (long SQQQ) losing $600 in the futile process. Stay with what you know, my friend.
I am really curious when these Trump good times inevitably come to an end, will these 2 systems survive without a large DD? Only time will tell...
Thank you bbpp for your words about my strategy VIXTrader Professional in Collective2. I spent thousand of hours to develop my strategies and I am happy to find people who can value my work!
Yesterday I posted a link to my development lab where you can see how I am developing Live my new strategy.
or direct link to the lab
Thanks again bbpp!
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