Each year, Pequot Capital Chief Investment Strategist Byron Wien attempts the impossible: Predicting the year's top surprises. His predictions for 2008 turned out to be good, as the economy went bad: Among other things, he called for a 10 percent drop in the S&P 500, a plunge in oil prices, victory for Barack Obama, and a cutting of rates by the ECB. "It was a better-than-average year," he told CNBC. "A typical year might be, I'd get five or six right; I got pretty close to seven, if you grade them on individual components." So here's his list of surprises for 2009, with a comment on each one: 1. S&P Rises to 1,200 in anticipation of a second-half recovery. "We've made the lows for the cycle; we won't go up in a straight line, we'll have a saw-tooth pattern, but I think we'll get to 1,200 before the year is out." 2. Gold Rises to $1,200 per ounce. "People are disenchanted with paper currencies, and eventually they'll get disenchanted with the dollar." 3. Crude oil returns to $80 per barrel. "China and India will maintain growth...and I think , as a result of that, the continued increase in demand for petroleum products will be there." 4. Dollar Goes Into Serious Downward Slide. "I just don't see how the dollar can hold up, with these deficits, and with the money supply expanding so rapidly." 5. 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4 percent. "I think it's aberrationally low, because of the fund flows into the United States." 6. Chinese growth exceeds 7 percent. "It's been a terrible 2008 for all emerging markets, but I think that creates the opportunity...for growth to continue in India and China." 7. State governments will threaten bankruptcy. "New York State is very dependent on the financial-services industry, and (it) is in tough shape...California is a big risk also." 8. Housing market will bottom early. "It may take several years to work off the inventory, but you will see a revival of the housing industry." 9. U.S. Savings Rate will fail to improve. "You'll see much better spending patterns for next Christmas." 10. President Obama will slow troop withdrawals. "An American military presence in the Middle East is a necessary condition of our foreign policy."
======================== S007s; a]Looks like some real estate markets most likely have bottomed; 1 of 2 TN cities ....Price has started gong up, inventory [supply also down 20% past 12 months.] But that one TN town never really got/hot-as sand states did. Median price is a reasonably $ 160,ooo, much cheaper than some sand states. b] Yes he got the downtrend direction right in S& P 500 dropping 10%; actually did much more................................................. 2009 may recover mid year, CBN news reported[S&P equity analysist Al Young]. b-again] But he hedged his remarks to CBN news with a warning about a 1930's repeat, if gov goes protectionist, goes higher taxes, or gov keeps meddling with private sector.Wow what a timely warning c] Cars maybe interesting, still have plenty of arrogant impolite auto dealers, with overpriced inventory; but used cars may get a spike, especially if oil spikes[Iran attacked by Israel]. USA [Investors Business Daily noted]President Barack; may do a used auto buy back................ None of these are prophesies or predictions.
Pequot's Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2008 January 06, 2008 10. Barack Obama becomes the 44th President in a landslide victory over Mitt Romney. With conditions in Iraq improving, the weak economy becomes the determining issue in votersâ minds. They want to make sure that gridlock ends and Congress gets something done for a change. The Democrats end up with 60 Senate seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Pequot's Wien Sees `Attractive Stocks in Every Sector': Video Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Byron Wien, chief market strategist at Pequot Capital Management Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler about investment opportunities in the U.S. stock market. Wien, also discusses the hedge-fund industry and the outlook for equities, gold prices and the U.S. economy in 2009. (Source: Bloomberg) 00:00 U.S. economy; gold prices and S&P 500 outlook 02:10 Treasury yields; outlook for U.S. deficit 05:08 U.S. savings rate and consumer spending 07:11 Bernard Madoff; hedge-fund industry outlook 10:58 Investment opportunities in the stock market 15:54 Outlook for the auto industry, General Motors 16:39 Outlook for the financial-services industry Running time 17:33 http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrV80RYswfjE.asf
I 've got one for him. He's out of work before the end of the year: By David Scheer and Jesse Westbrook Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission opened a new investigation into whether Pequot Capital Management Inc., the hedge fund run by Arthur Samberg, illegally profited from inside information on Microsoft Corp. in 2001, two people familiar with the matter said. Investigators learned of documents that show former Microsoft employee David Zilkha may have obtained confidential information about the software maker, said one of the people, declining to be identified because the investigation isnât public. Zilkha left the company in 2001 to join Pequot.
I saw Wien on CNBC the other day. What happened to that guys face? He looked like he went 1 round with Holyfield, Norris and Cancer.