This is shaping up as highly accurate, creating an excellent set up: tiny drawdown (6 or 7 ticks), with .8300 possibly taken out today. Equities meltdown in Europe with follow thru here this morning looks to be cause. Nikkei held up pretty well overnight after yesterday's equities drop in New York, which is why I commented last night (early in Tokyo session) that I thought YEN would not strengthen much. Will it pivot at .8300?
I'm out this trade at 79 average for +69. I am loaded with EEM puts and didn't want any additional risk overnight if todays rout turns in to just another minor dip. If it does Yen goes to new lows quickly. Infact I will be looking for a level to go heavy short the Yen if I see buying come back in to equities. If selling increases and technicals confirm in equities then yen could pop back to 84-86, maybe higher if this is a significant correction. Either way it is a risky play as the moves in either direction could be swift. Options on the futures are still very cheap and probably a good way to play the yen here.
YEN pretty stable over here despite worldwide sellof in stocks...getting a little nervous about my carry-trade-unwinding-theory...
Time and patience are not meant to be used when you're holding an interest negative position. Time and patience will eat your account.
Early gains in JGBs tonight (Tokyo Monday) erased and routed after hot GDP number. I may regret not keeping my YEN shorts, although my instinct tells me that other markets will provide better opportunities over the next weeks. Price action in USD may look like a sideshow compared to equities.
Japan's current account surplus widened at the fastest pace in three years in April as exports rose and a weaker yen increased the value of investments abroad. The surplus expanded 50.3 percent to 1.99 trillion yen ($16 billion) from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the gap to widen to 1.84 trillion yen. Anybody realizing that in the near future Japam has to raise rates ?