Restan- fundamental always trumps technical in the long run, the best chart in the world can be ruined in an instant by some shakey corporate governance or a product late to market, swelled inventories, etc. Briefing is the standard. Read In Play every day. S&P is very valuable as well albeit often too conservative but they have no one to answer to and will tell you when to avoid a stock which is equally if not more important than what stock to buy. Within S&P is views- which is a assimilation of big house views on stocks- that's often handy for ST trading. If you go to Smartmoney and scroll down to the Barons box you can click into Tech Traders Blog this is very good to. Of course all of this is for stocks I don't play with any of the other stuff. Hey Istock I said TEXAS INDUSTRIES!
2004 - 2005 Texas Industries made a cataclysmic move from $30-$65. So it's been $65 before. Rather than stock split and keep on rising it crapped to bed after reaching $70 on a huge reversal day closing at $61 on 3/30. Amazingly it recovered and put in a higher high of $75 before another fall from grace and rebuilding stage-- so one could determine there is a certain cyclically to their earnings prospects. One thing is for sure this stock was happily up around $70 two years ago and never went any farther. Now we take a look at fundamentals is this a safe time to buy? Late last year congress passed the huge highway bill that = cement, TXI produces 30% of all the cement used in Texas. Texas in particular is interesting because they are thinking about a new 800 mile highway that will be 1/2 mile wide! For trucks going from South to North Texas. I don't have to tell you if that project goes through it's through the roof for this stock> that's a hell of a lot of cement needed!. Another great thing is they are rebuilding a big plant that already has all it's permits, in the cement world, it's just like refining- it's a complete pain in the ass to get a plant built. Around 7 years just to get the OK! Then you have to build it. Competition is not going to be a problem. I can respect not wanting to buy a chart like that but when you consider the prospects and the fact this stock was up at these levels before so it's hardly nosebleed territory.... $65 that old level it stayed at for a few months in 05 that would be my buy point and probably will be. One other stock in the same field worth considering is EXP Eagle Materials their chart you will see is quite a bit different and most would probably prefer it, but eagle is heavy into the housing market w/ wall boards and that's just a big risk. That being said if you're a value guy you take that risk because they make a ton of cash $4.25 in 07 and the forward PE is cheap. My instinct would be to stay with the winner. $65 in TXI and then hope to hell they build that highway. PS Eagle is in California and California and Texas together consume 23% of ALL the US's cement! ~that's stonedinvesting
Stoned--thanks. i know how to use technical indicators and i think all short term traders should have a real time charting service, else what do you have to base your picks on? the cup and handle formation you are seeing here can be scanned from a universe of stocks by a short ( 5 da. ma ) crossing up through a longer (35 da. ma) by TC2000. i get a fairly large number of stocks with this pattern each day. i am just looking for confirmation of my picks by a group of professional stock analysts.
istock, stoney, restan- After I read your dialogue I decided the three of you may need some direction because a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing in the world of guys like me who work hard at taking your money. So I consulted my library and right at eye level I found my old dog eared copy of a book written back in 1988. A time when we all were doing our own charts by hand and the only 2 chart services were Chartcraft and Mansfield. I'm going to recommend a nice little primer to all three of you. It's pleasantly written, concise, unobtrusive, and easy to read. Nothing esoteric here. You can read this over a weekend and I guarantee you will consult it over your lifetime. http://www.amazon.com/Stan-Weinstei..._bbs_sr_1/103-2589219-2009450?ie=UTF8&s=books Now get to work.
m2cts--if you were talking about Secrets for Profiting.... i read this three years ago and i agree it is an excellent book. it works well in strongly trending markets. it works better for long term investors than short term traders. i have shortened his moving averages to 10 days crossing 35 days. i use this scan every day , but you do get whipsaws in choppy markets. if you're taking my money, i assume you are on the selling side. if you have any technical analysis scan you think will work for buying, i'll be happy to papertrade it for a month or so. Roy
2cents I ordered that book after reading through the 60 some odd reviews on Amazon. suffice is to say a lot of folks bitch that the actual service that uses the system returns 8% average over the last ten years. and people have trouble finding a website where it uses the 30-week Moving Average and 0-line Relative strength as the author repeatedly recommends in his book.most charts are using 50-day and 200-day MA, and RSI which are different from what Stan suggests. And of course I do quite well year in and year out so I don't want to jam up my thinking. But I get a lot of the tools free on etrade so I might as well understand them better... Also this guy looks like a complete huckster! Granted that was the eighties but I sure hope that's not an updated photo! Peace.
Roy boy- "Amateurs are constantly trying to force opinions out of their charts." Don Worden Roy, their is no holy grail. It is a situation where everything works and nothing works. Devise you own methodology and write your own rules and you'll have no one to blame but yourself. "Each trader reinvents his own wheel, and then reinvents it, again and again." Don Worden. Take some time out this weekend and read Stan's book again. Avoid the particulars and absorb the message. Stick with your Worden Brother's. Don, Peter and Chris will take good care of you. Stoney- This is the first time in my lifetime that I ever had the chance to use this phrase in it's proper context as opposed to a euphemism. Don't judge a book by its cover.[/b] I have the autographed hard cover version that Stan handed out one day as a guest of the exchange, everybody knows the cover you're talking about. The story goes that his publisher used that cover to match the newspaper ads promoting the book. It made the book easier to spot in the bookstore. Weinstein references the Mansfield charts in his book. For the sake of simplicity he utilizes the tools supplied by Mansfield. 10 Wk MA = 50 days 30 Wk MA = 150 days 50, 200 = same difference Those critiques are just opinions, and you know the old expression that opinions are like a certain body part that barely get to see the light of day.
It looks like TXI is tracking along with other indecies. Right now I think we can expect wave 5 or one more or last advance.
Thanks Wavelink I agree with your wave analysis- I see a trade of $10 here $65 to $75 on Texas Ind.... My2cents thanks as well for the sage advice. I look forward to reading the book. One problem I'm sure I am going to have is with specific stocks deciding when to begin counting their various stages-- obviously you can't begin with every stocks IPO or they would all be classified as having topped out and heading down by now... After the holidays I will come back with my review.